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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – February 9, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Before we look at our very small chance of snow Saturday night, let's look at the season snowfall to date (Figure 1). My home, in NE Longmont, has received 45.2 inches of snow since September (that is amazing to me too). That matches the purple shade for Longmont in this figure. Places in the mountains have received tremendous amounts of snow. Overall, the state is at 111% of normal as snow fall goes. Good news.

Today (Saturday) temperatures return to just somewhat below normal for the date - Figure 2 (about 48°F for today). The cool front passes around 3 pm.

The longer range forecast:

Figure 3 is the upper-air pattern for Sunday showing a trough passing and a deeper one approaching from the west. The problem is there is little moisture expected to be available to the system east of the Rockies. The mountains will keep getting shot after shot of new snow. The surface map for Sunday am (Figure 4) shows precipitation remaining over the western slopes and higher mountains and northern Colorado Rockies. We 'may' see some snow sneak off, but it won't be much. Figure 5 is the GFS take on snowfall over the next 5 days. We have a coating to 1 inch touching the eastern side of the town and just down the road in Boulder.

After this weekend, we bounce around in the 30's F and 40's F with our next chance of snow coming Thursday. More on that later!

Figure 1: Snowfall totals posted on Twitter by Matt Makins.
Figure 2: The forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Saturday noon.
Figure 3: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Sunday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 4: The forecast surface map for Sunday AM. From NCEP.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through Wednesday (5 days out).



Comments

Cloudy

Cloudy

70°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.97 Rising
Visibility
10 miles
Dewpoint
50 °F
Humidity
48%
Wind
NW 8.1 mph
Gust
8.1 mph
Wind Chill
70 °F

Forecast


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Monday

97 °F

Warm; a t-storm in spots late in the morning followed by a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Partly cloudy w/ showers

Monday Night

62 °F

Partly cloudy with a passing shower or two


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

81 °F

Cooler with intervals of clouds and sunshine


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

56 °F

Patchy clouds


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Wednesday

85 °F

Sunshine and some clouds with a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon


Mostly clear

Wednesday Night

57 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Thursday

93 °F

Partly sunny with a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

60 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Friday

97 °F

Very warm with times of clouds and sun


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

63 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
11:43 AM
Sunset
2:29 AM

Based on AccuWeather data