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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – July 3, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

The forecast is becoming summer-simple: high temperatures around 90F each day with a greater or lesser chance of afternoon thunderstorms coming off the mountains. Our most stormy afternoons appear to be Tuesday (post day for this column) and Friday- Saturday. We do cool to the lower 80'sF briefly Saturday.

Forecast Discussion:

The dark green outline shows the deeper moisture (as it begins to move out of the state - Figure 1). The lighter green line outlines very dry air to our west. The chance of severe weather is marginal just north of Longmont up through Ft. Collins etc. (not shown).

The Longer Range Forecast:

We spend a few hours in the lower 90sF Wednesday and Thursday before we cool to the mid 80'sF then lower 80'sF Friday and Saturday. Afternoon storm chances are low, but still exist.

The 4th of July Forecast:

I have a red asterisks at about 9pm on the charts Figure 2 and Figure 3. The weatherunderground model has us at ab out 76F at 9pm with a 4% chance of showers and 25% cloud cover that is decreasing. The GFS based 7! Timer model (Figure 3) has us at about 63F with cloudy skies and showers occurring. It begins to clear after midnight. There is some clear disagreement - we'll keep an eye on it!

Figure 1: the water vapor satellite image (browns/reds are dry air, whites and light grey is moist air, purple/blue is ice and high cloud tops). From the NWS.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: The 2.5 day sky conditions forecast from 7! Timer (the GFS).
Figure 4: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, up to July 4th morning.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, up to July 4th late night.



Comments

Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

70°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.05 Rising
Visibility
10 miles
Dewpoint
35 °F
Humidity
26%
Wind
WNW 5.8 mph
Gust
5.8 mph
Wind Chill
70 °F

Forecast


Mostly sunny

Friday

97 °F

Sunny to partly cloudy and warmer


Mostly clear

Friday Night

61 °F

Mainly clear


Partly sunny

Saturday

95 °F

Partly sunny and very warm


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

61 °F

Mainly clear


Partly sunny

Sunday

96 °F

Partly sunny and remaining very warm


Mostly clear

Sunday Night

59 °F

Mainly clear


Partly sunny

Monday

88 °F

Partly sunny and pleasant


Mostly clear

Monday Night

58 °F

Mainly clear


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

93 °F

Very warm with times of sun and clouds


Mostly clear

Tuesday Night

58 °F

Mainly clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:05 AM
Sunset
8:07 PM

Based on AccuWeather data