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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – December 4, 2017

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

I'll update this in the morning when some data has come in on what our cold front has done.  In short, again, it will be cold (upper 30's for a high), windy at times, and cloudy early on today. Very little precipitation will happen outside of the mountains.

Morning Update:

The surface wind field Monday AM shows the real wind push (and cooler air) were just approaching Longmont before 8am (Figure 1). There are a few snow showers up on the Wyoming border. Figure 2 is the frontal analysis and the earlier wind shift line and pressure drop is far down into New Mexico.  These things can come in waves.

The forecast map for just a few hours later (Figure 3) has the front even further south and some precipitation up mainly in southern Wyoming.  Yes, we missed out again.

Figure 1: MyRadar app for iOS image from 7:45am Monday.

Figure 2: The Weather Channel current surface map from Monday AM

Figure 3: Surface map forecast for midday Monday.

Longer range forecast:

A northerly jet flow will keep us cool (near seasonable/normal temperatures) with another weak front Tuesday and again on Thursday (Figure 4).  The GFS shows a small chance of precipitation in northern Colorado on Thursday.  Don't too excited yet though.

We do return to around 60F on the weekend as the ridge moves east!

Figure 4: 500mb upper air forecast map for Thursday PM from the GFS.

Figure 4: surface analysis forecast map for Thursday PM from the GFS.

Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

50°F

UV Index
3 Moderate
Pressure
29.85 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
33 °F
Humidity
52%
Wind
E 1.6 mph
Gust
4.1 mph
Wind Chill
50 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
9 AM
52°F
Mostly sunny
Today
10 AM
56°F
Partly sunny
Today
11 AM
60°F
Partly sunny
Today
12 PM
63°F
Partly sunny
Today
1 PM
67°F
Partly sunny
Today
2 PM
69°F
Partly sunny
Today
3 PM
72°F
Partly sunny
Today
4 PM
70°F
Partly sunny
Today
5 PM
65°F
Partly sunny
Today
6 PM
60°F
Partly sunny
Today
7 PM
55°F
Partly sunny
Today
8 PM
52°F
Partly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny

Friday

72 °F

Pleasant with partial sunshine; breezy this afternoon


Partly cloudy w/ showers

Friday Night

37 °F

Partly cloudy with a couple of showers late


Partly sunny

Saturday

66 °F

Sun and some clouds


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

40 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

76 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer; breezy in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

51 °F

Rather cloudy; windy late


Windy

Monday

60 °F

Winds becoming strong; cloudy and cooler with a shower in spots


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

43 °F

Breezy in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Windy

Tuesday

62 °F

Strong winds; partly sunny


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:57 AM
Sunset
7:58 PM

Based on AccuWeather data