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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – February 1, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Our next two storms, while cooling things down to just a bit above normal temperatures, are going to be dominated by drying down slope flow.  Figure 1 shows the frontal system in place down the Front Range on Wednesday.  This is very shallow and not very moist air.

By midday today, the surface map hasn't changed much (Figure 2) but upper level dynamics (an approaching jet stream) will create some snow and freezing drizzle over northern Colorado.

Figure 3 is the total snowfall through late Thursday night/early Friday AM and we 'may' see a dusting to an inch if we are very lucky.  More likely, some freezing drizzle will glaze things and make bridges tricky to drive on. Figure 4 is the total precipitation which it is below the threshold of the lightest color.

Figure 1: Current surface analysis map from Wednesday afternoon from the Weather Channel.

Figure 2: The forecast surface analysis map from NCEP for Thursday midday.

Figure 3: Total snowfall between Wednesday afternoon and Friday early morning from the GFS and weather5280.com.

Figure 4: Total precipitation between Wednesday afternoon and Friday early morning from the GFS and weather5280.com.

The longer range forecast:

Our next storm, for the weekend leaves the same notch of low to no measurable snow up I-25 to almost Berthoud (down slope- Figure 5).  Note, the mountains pick up a foot of snow in the higher elevations near the Wyoming border. In the precipitation department (Figure 6), the 'very little precipitation' strip runs right up from Denver into Wyoming.

Figure 5: Total snowfall between Wednesday afternoon and Monday midday from the GFS and weather5280.com.

Figure 6: Total precipitation between Wednesday afternoon and Monday midday from the GFS and weather5280.com.

Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

56°F

UV Index
4 Moderate
Pressure
29.83 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
34 °F
Humidity
43%
Wind
E 2.1 mph
Gust
6 mph
Wind Chill
56 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
10 AM
60°F
Partly sunny
Today
11 AM
63°F
Partly sunny
Today
12 PM
66°F
Partly sunny
Today
1 PM
68°F
Partly sunny
Today
2 PM
70°F
Partly sunny
Today
3 PM
72°F
Partly sunny
Today
4 PM
69°F
Partly sunny
Today
5 PM
65°F
Partly sunny
Today
6 PM
60°F
Partly sunny
Today
7 PM
55°F
Partly sunny
Today
8 PM
52°F
Partly cloudy
Today
9 PM
49°F
Partly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny

Friday

72 °F

Pleasant with partial sunshine; breezy this afternoon


Partly cloudy w/ showers

Friday Night

37 °F

Partly cloudy with a couple of showers late


Partly sunny

Saturday

66 °F

Sun and some clouds


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

40 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

76 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer; breezy in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

51 °F

Rather cloudy; windy late


Windy

Monday

60 °F

Very windy; cloudy and cooler


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

43 °F

Breezy in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

62 °F

Times of clouds and sun; windy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday Night

36 °F

Clearing


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:57 AM
Sunset
7:58 PM

Based on AccuWeather data