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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – February 2, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

We finally had a storm overproduce!  (The second time this winter?) I predicted some rain, freezing rain and a coating to an inch of snow if we were lucky.  We didn't get rain or ice, and all the precipitation that fell was in the form of snow - which added to a full inch at my house.

The ridge is now off in the Pacific Ocean and we have a healthy northwest flow regime (the jet stream is moving from the northwest to the southeast past Colorado/over Colorado).  I've drawn red lines for smaller troughs in the giant trough pattern that dominates most of the US in the maps below.

The longer range forecast:

You can watch the smaller troughs pass on Saturday (Figure 1), Sunday (Figure 2), and off into Tuesday (Figure 3). Each trough will kick off snow in the mountains and bring a slight cooling and maybe a bit snow down here in Longmont.

Figure 4 is the total snowfall through Sunday by the GFS - and we might see up to an inch fall by then.  Details tomorrow!

Figure 1: The GFS upper air forecast map for Saturday AM. Troughs are in red, ridges in blue.

Figure 2: The GFS upper air forecast map for Sunday AM. Troughs are in red, ridges in blue.

Figure 3: The GFS upper air forecast map for Tuesday AM. Troughs are in red, ridges in blue.

Figure 4: The total snowfall forecast from the GFS between Thursday PM and Sunday early morning from weather5280.com

Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

51°F

UV Index
6 High
Pressure
30 Steady
Visibility
9 miles
Dewpoint
18 °F
Humidity
27%
Wind
SSE 4.5 mph
Gust
11.5 mph
Wind Chill
51 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
10 AM
51°F
Mostly sunny
Today
11 AM
55°F
Mostly sunny
Today
12 PM
58°F
Mostly sunny
Today
1 PM
60°F
Partly sunny
Today
2 PM
62°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
3 PM
63°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
4 PM
65°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
5 PM
63°F
Cloudy
Today
6 PM
62°F
Cloudy
Today
7 PM
59°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
8 PM
56°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
9 PM
53°F
Mostly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Thursday

65 °F

Becoming cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

36 °F

Mostly cloudy


Partly sunny

Friday

70 °F

Partial sunshine


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

38 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Saturday

66 °F

Partial sunshine


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

41 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

76 °F

Rather cloudy; breezy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

43 °F

Partly cloudy


Cloudy

Monday

60 °F

Cloudy and cooler with a shower in spots; windy in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Monday Night

43 °F

Breezy in the evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:58 AM
Sunset
7:57 PM

Based on AccuWeather data