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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – January 12, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Chilly air was in place for a day, post-cold front on Thursday. Our cold front is being pushed across the Midwest U.S. by the upper air trough (the lower red line in Figure 1). The signs of things to come are visible as the blue line ridge off the West Coast (we are very familiar with that ridge this year).

That upper trough (the higher red line) will kick off mountain snow today and lower elevation winds as it races through today.  Figure 2 shows those, mostly western slopes and higher mountain, snows.  Figure 3 shows the strong winds up and down the Front Range for today.

Figure 1: The upper air 500mb forecast map for Friday morning (today) from the GFS.

Figure 2: The forecast surface analysis map for Friday midday from NCEP.

Figure 3: The GFS forecast surface pressure and winds for midday Friday. Longmont is the pink dot in all these maps.

The longer range forecast:

On Sunday, the western ridge is closer (Figure 4) and another northern trough is coming down to give us a brief chance of rain/snow on Monday. Figure 5 is the upper air pattern for Monday and that trough is sweeping by already.  As with most of the storms this winter... I don't expect much from it due to lack of moisture and quick passage. But we'll keep an eye on it here!

Figure 4: The upper air 500mb forecast map for Sunday morning from the GFS.

Figure 5: The upper air 500mb forecast map for Monday morning from the GFS.

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

52°F

UV Index
7 High
Pressure
29.51 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
22 °F
Humidity
31%
Wind
W 12.9 mph
Gust
31.4 mph
Wind Chill
52 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
12 PM
54°F
Showers
Today
1 PM
55°F
Showers
Today
2 PM
56°F
Cloudy
Today
3 PM
57°F
Cloudy
Today
4 PM
57°F
Cloudy
Today
5 PM
56°F
Cloudy
Today
6 PM
55°F
Cloudy
Today
7 PM
55°F
Cloudy
Today
8 PM
53°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
9 PM
51°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 PM
49°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 PM
48°F
Partly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Showers

Monday

57 °F

Winds becoming strong; a few showers this morning; otherwise, mostly cloudy and cooler


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

41 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Tuesday

58 °F

A couple of showers in the morning; otherwise, windy and cool with times of clouds and sun


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

33 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

60 °F

Times of clouds and sun


Mostly cloudy

Wednesday Night

38 °F

Increasing clouds


Partly sunny w/ showers

Thursday

56 °F

Times of clouds and sun with a couple of showers; cool


Cloudy

Thursday Night

37 °F

Cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Friday

62 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer


Mostly clear

Friday Night

36 °F

Mainly clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:53 AM
Sunset
8:01 PM

Based on AccuWeather data