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In Brief:
After 15 snow flakes fell in town this afternoon (Monday) we enter a very normal, dry (boring) stretch of weather. The models are in a lot of disagreement over what will come next; the weatherunderground and GEM models drop good snow on Longmont Saturday into Sunday. The GFS and NAM do not.
Forecast Discussion:
All is quiet on the western front - well the front that is fading out to our west (Figure 1). High pressure will dominate the weather story for the week. I did see flakes falling between me and my cell phone at lunchtime, but the clouds were thin and the sun was shining. The radar didn't show precipitation falling. Tuesday is very close to seasonably cool with just a few clouds now and then.
The Longer Range Forecast:
The rest of the week is that same story - mild and cool (Figure 2). The **slow** melt will continue. I finally got the last chunks of ice of my driveway proper, but the street out front is still an icy lumpy mess.
Looking at next weekend the GEM and weatherunderground models - they are sniffing out at least a few, to a number of inches of snow (Figure 2). Still, the GFS says nothing significant will fall in town (Figure 3). It puts all the action up in the mountains.
The Fantasy Far-Out Christmas Forecast:
I'm always rooting for White Christmas. Just looking quickly at the GFS; it has some snow falling in places around the state overnight Saturday into Sunday December 21-22 (Figure 4). It has us locked under a strong (cold) high pressure center for Christmas Eve and Day (not shown). This could certainly change a LOT between now and then. It is good news that there is some type of storm in the area within a few days of Christmas showing up in the models. That hints that a large ridge won't be ruling the roost entirely by the end of the month. More later!
