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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – Nov 8-9, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

In typical Colorado fashion, a ridge is passing the state Friday/Saturday will lead to a very comfortable warm up. Then a trough moves in, cold air pours out of Canada Sunday evening and we return to the ice box with a chance of snow/ice again. It is short lived and we pop back to relative warmth on Tuesday and beyond. You are also invited to see a transit of Mercury Monday morning (clouds permitting) at the Cherrywood Observatory. Details below...

Forecast Discussion:

Today and Saturday - we enjoy the wonders of a big ridge (Figure 1) with a bit of down slope flow to warm things a few more degrees. Temperatures Saturday will be up to 10-15 degrees above normal (Figure 2). This warmth comes to an end Sunday afternoon as another front hits around 4pm (Figure 5 - dotted line). This is powered by a fast moving trough and a brief blast of northwesterly winds over the state (Figure 3). The cold air that flows down Sunday is quite shallow and doesn't make it over the mountains to the west (Figure 4).

After the front passes, up slope flow and some moisture comes back in. The window for precipitation will run from about 9pm (Sunday) to 9am (Monday). The Plains from the Palmer Divide north should see a coating to an inch of snow (maybe 2 inches in lucky spots- Figure 6) with not much rain- except further north near Wyoming, maybe as far south as Longmont- Figure 7.

The Longer Range Forecast:

The cold air is whisked away on Tuesday and beyond. We don't get really warm, but mild and dry mainly in the 50's for highs all week.

Cherrywood Observatory Mercury Transit Invitation:

Monday morning at sunrise, Mercury will be transiting (crossing the face of the sun like a mini-eclipse). If it is clear, I'll have the telescope set on the sun (with a proper and safe filter) so you can stop by and see the little dot on the face of the sun. I'm near Pace and 17th at the intersection of Cherrywood Dr. and Cherrywood Cir. east of Alpine. The sun should clear my neighbor's house around 7am and the transit ends at 11:04am. I'll be out to peek now and then - just come in the yard and look through the scope in the observatory building.

Figure 1: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Friday PM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 2: the surface temperature anomaly (departure from normal) from the GFS for Saturday night from weather5280.com.
Figure 3: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Saturday PM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 4: the surface temperature anomaly (departure from normal) from the GFS for Sunday noon from weather5280.com.
Figure 5: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 6 : The forecast snowfall totals for the next 5 days from the GFS and weather5280com for Colorado made Tuesday noon.
Figure 7: The forecast rainfall totals for the next 5 days from the GFS and weather5280com for Colorado made Tuesday noon.



Comments

Sunny

Sunny

92°F

UV Index
10 Very High
Pressure
30.06 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
46 °F
Humidity
20%
Wind
ESE 3.4 mph
Gust
6.7 mph
Wind Chill
92 °F

Forecast


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Monday

92 °F

Mostly sunny with the temperature near the record of 95 set in 2002; a t-storm late this afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

61 °F

Mild with increasing clouds


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

88 °F

Very warm with intervals of clouds and sun


Partly cloudy w/ t-storms

Tuesday Night

58 °F

A shower or thunderstorm in spots early in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy and mild


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

88 °F

Periods of clouds and sunshine


Partly cloudy

Wednesday Night

55 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Thursday

87 °F

Very warm with sun and some clouds


Mostly clear

Thursday Night

54 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Friday

91 °F

Rather cloudy and very warm


Intermittent clouds

Friday Night

62 °F

Partly to mostly cloudy and mild


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
11:33 AM
Sunset
2:24 AM

Based on AccuWeather data