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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – October 16-17, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

Quite warm conditions return with a ridge overhead Wed/Thur and westerly down slope flow/winds. We'll touch 80F again! Then another cold front kicks us back to the 60'sF Fri/Sat and yet another cold front takes us down to the 50'sF for the end of the weekend. The previously mentioned snow chances seem very minimal along I-25 at this time.

Forecast Discussion:

The cold front from Monday is draped down the Front Range Tuesday (Figure 1). It won't remain here long. An approaching upper level ridge will help kick up westerly winds and down slope flow to take us to the 80's for the next couple of days (Figure 5 orange boxes). Very dry conditions (and fire danger) will continue.

The Longer Range Forecast:

Friday and Saturday will be another post-frontal time with things cooled about 15 F from the heat of mid-week (Figure 5 -green boxes). Another cold front takes us another 10 cooler for Sunday and Monday (Figure 5 blue boxes).

That third cold front will be powered by a fairly strong, but open, wave (Figure 3). With temperatures not THAT cold Sunday/Monday and not THAT much moisture around, it looks like snow will be confined to the mountains and foothills at present. Sorry if you were getting excited.

Figure 1: The current surface analysis map from Thursday afternoon from the weatherchannel.com
Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Thursday AM from NCEP.
Figure 3: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Sunday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 4: The forecast snowfall totals for the next 6 days from the GFS and weather5280com for Colorado made Saturday morning.
Figure 5: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Current Weather

Mostly clear

Mostly clear

41°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.85 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
33 °F
Humidity
73%
Wind
NW 1.7 mph
Gust
4 mph
Wind Chill
41 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
6 AM
39°F
Mostly sunny
Today
7 AM
42°F
Mostly sunny
Today
8 AM
47°F
Partly sunny
Today
9 AM
52°F
Partly sunny
Today
10 AM
57°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 AM
62°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
12 PM
65°F
Cloudy
Today
1 PM
69°F
Cloudy
Today
2 PM
73°F
Cloudy
Today
3 PM
75°F
Cloudy
Today
4 PM
77°F
Cloudy
Today
5 PM
76°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Sunday

77 °F

Rather cloudy and warmer; breezy this afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

48 °F

Cloudy most of the time


Windy

Monday

57 °F

Winds gusting past 40 mph; cloudy and cooler


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

43 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

59 °F

Windy and cool with times of clouds and sun


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

32 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

60 °F

Times of clouds and sun


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

35 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Thursday

58 °F

Mostly cloudy and cool; breezy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

39 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:54 AM
Sunset
8:00 PM

Based on AccuWeather data