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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – November 12, 2017

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Saturday was a near picture perfect day for Veterans Day.  We saw very mild temperatures, very little wind, and just a few clouds.  There is a weak cold front moving into the state Saturday PM and Sunday AM (Figure 1). This is in response to a small short wave trough moving through the pretty strong westerly jet stream flow over the state all this week (the red line in Figure 2).

By midday today (Sunday- Figure 3) the front will be far to the south and we'll see weather about 10 degrees cooler than we did on Sunday.  Sadly, this is a very dry front.

Figure 1: Current surface map from late Saturday PM (the weather channel).

Figure 2: The current 500mb upper air map late Saturday PM.

Figure 3: Surface forecast map for midday Sunday from NCEP.

The longer range forecast:

Another weak trough will move over the state on Tuesday. This will kick up some winds (more up in the mountains) and cool us just a bit.  Still, it will be very dry (Figure 4). The very next day another ridge (blue line) is overhead and the front is gone (Figure 5).  The deeper trough out west will move through on Thursday and bring down yet another front, but that one may have enough moisture to bring snow and rain showers to the mountains (not much on the Plains at this time). We'll watch that to see if it might put water down on Longmont.

Figure 4: 500mb upper air forecast map for Tuesday PM from the GFS.

Figure 5: 500mb upper air forecast map for Wednesday PM from the GFS.

Current Weather

Light rain

Light rain

73°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30 Rising
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
44 °F
Humidity
35%
Wind
SSE 5.6 mph
Gust
11.1 mph
Wind Chill
73 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
7 PM
70°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
8 PM
68°F
Partly sunny
Today
9 PM
64°F
Partly cloudy
Today
10 PM
61°F
Partly cloudy
Today
11 PM
59°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
58°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
57°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
55°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
54°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
4 AM
52°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
5 AM
51°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
6 AM
50°F
Partly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Saturday

77 °F

Not as warm with increasing cloudiness; a thunderstorm in the area late this afternoon


Partly cloudy

Saturday Night

50 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Sunday

81 °F

Sunshine and patchy clouds; breezy in the afternoon


Mostly clear

Sunday Night

49 °F

Mainly clear


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Monday

70 °F

Not as warm with times of sun and clouds; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Thunderstorms

Monday Night

46 °F

Cloudy with a couple of thundershowers


Thunderstorms

Tuesday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy and cooler; a couple of afternoon showers and a thunderstorm


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday Night

37 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Wednesday

73 °F

Pleasant and warmer with partial sunshine


Mostly clear

Wednesday Night

40 °F

Mainly clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:41 AM
Sunset
8:13 PM

Based on AccuWeather data