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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – October 16, 2017

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

I won't take too much of your time when things are so quiet. A big high pressure system has settled over the region.  Cool lower level air is very stable so no 'weather' has happened nearby (Figure 1). The upper air pattern from Sunday PM shows the approaching ridge that will track slowly across the Western US this week.  We have dry northwest flow for the next few days (Figure 2).

Figure 1: Current surface analysis from Sunday PM.

Figure 2: Upper air 500mb analysis from Sunday PM. The northwest flow orange arrow shouldn't have a blue arrow head stem. Oops.

The Longer Range Forecast:

By Thursday morning (Figure 3) the ridge is passing us and we have dry southwest flow.  Temperatures Tuesday and Thursday/Friday may get quite close to 80F. Figure 4 is the GFS's take on next weekend where a trough finally replaces our ridge (which is over the Great Lakes by this time). Other models show an earlier arrival of trough and storm Friday/Saturday rather than Saturday/Sunday.

Figure 3: The Thursday AM 500mb forecast from the GFS. Darn program was changing colors on me a lot... the ridge off in the Atlantic should be a blue line. Troughs are red lines.

Figure 4: The Sunday AM 500mb forecast from the GFS.

Current Weather

Clear

Clear

45°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.9 Steady
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
36 °F
Humidity
72%
Wind
W 2.3 mph
Gust
5.3 mph
Wind Chill
45 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
2 AM
44°F
Mostly clear
Today
3 AM
43°F
Mostly clear
Today
4 AM
42°F
Mostly clear
Today
5 AM
40°F
Mostly clear
Today
6 AM
39°F
Mostly sunny
Today
7 AM
42°F
Mostly sunny
Today
8 AM
48°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 AM
53°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 AM
59°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
11 AM
64°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
12 PM
67°F
Cloudy
Today
1 PM
70°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Intermittent clouds

Saturday

64 °F

Cooler with clouds giving way to some sun


Partly cloudy w/ showers

Saturday Night

39 °F

Turning out clear


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

78 °F

Cloudy most of the time, breezy and warmer


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

47 °F

Rather cloudy and windy


Windy

Monday

60 °F

Very windy; cloudy and cooler


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

41 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

59 °F

Cool with times of clouds and sun; windy in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

32 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

60 °F

Times of clouds and sun


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

35 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:55 AM
Sunset
7:59 PM

Based on AccuWeather data