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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – October 24, 2017

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

The front is past and warm air will return on the southern side of the jet stream (Figure 2) and from west of the stationary front just overhead (Figure 1).  Things are very quiet again over Colorado as another warm up takes us to near 80F by Wednesday.

Figure 1: Surface analysis from Monday PM from weather.com

Figure 2: The GFS forecast 500mb upper air map for Tuesday PM. Ridges are blue lines, troughs are red lines.

In the longer range:

We are still watching the Thursday storm for cold air (starting in the morning bringing dropping temperatures all day, instead of the normal warm up to a high mid-afternoon) and potential snow. Figure 3 shows the buckling of the jet stream with cold air pushing southwest for just a day.  The NWS is talking about only a brief mix of rain and snow along I-25 Thursday afternoon.  The weatherunderground.com model is giving only a small chance of rain.  The GFS in Figure 4 is giving us 3-4 inches of snow in a brief heavy shot.

The main takeaway is that it will be quite cold for one day.  The amount of moisture is in question and hopefully will come into focus in another day of forecasting!

Figure 3: The GFS forecast 500mb upper air map for Thursday PM. Ridges are blue lines, troughs are red lines.

Figure 4: GFS total snowfall from Monday PM to Thursday PM.

Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

59°F

UV Index
8 Very High
Pressure
29.96 Falling
Visibility
9 miles
Dewpoint
20 °F
Humidity
21%
Wind
SSE 4.5 mph
Gust
11.9 mph
Wind Chill
59 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
12 PM
59°F
Mostly sunny
Today
1 PM
61°F
Partly sunny
Today
2 PM
62°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
3 PM
64°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
4 PM
65°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
5 PM
64°F
Cloudy
Today
6 PM
61°F
Cloudy
Today
7 PM
59°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
8 PM
56°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
9 PM
53°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
10 PM
50°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
11 PM
47°F
Mostly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Thursday

65 °F

Becoming cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

36 °F

Mostly cloudy


Partly sunny

Friday

70 °F

Partial sunshine


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

38 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Saturday

66 °F

Partial sunshine


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

41 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

76 °F

Rather cloudy; breezy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

43 °F

Partly cloudy


Cloudy

Monday

60 °F

Cloudy and cooler with a shower in spots; windy in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Monday Night

43 °F

Breezy in the evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:58 AM
Sunset
7:57 PM

Based on AccuWeather data