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The Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory –March 21-23, 2020

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

The snow departs and we enter an extended mild period of quiet weather. There is a chance of some rain/snow Wednesday PM into Thursday. That's all I have to say about that.

Forecast Discussion:

Let's start with the main storm snow totals. Figure 1 shows Longmont received about 4-5.5 inches. Boudler received an impressive 5-10 inches and the mountains above pushed 20 inches. I forecasted 3-5 here and 4-8 later over on Next Door. This was a healthy hit of snow (with almost 1.5 inches of moisture!).

A slow moving frontal boundary will now drift east as warmer air returns Saturday (Figure 2). We have a local bit of ridging in the upper air pattern while the complex troughiness remains way out west off the coast (Figure 3). There is a lot less energy in that setup currently.

The Longer Range forecast:

We hover between about 50F and 60F for the next 10 days. A somewhat organized low ejects Wednesday night across the state bringing us some rain/snow chances mid-week (Figure 4). Snowfall is confined to the mountains and higher elevations over the next 5 days (Figure 5).

Figure 1 : 24 hour snowfall reports through 7am Friday in Boulder Co. from CoCoRaHS.
Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Saturday PM from NCEP.
Figure 3: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Friday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 4: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 5: 10:1 (snow to liquid) snowfall totals through the next 5 days from the GFS and weather5280com for Colorado made Friday AM.

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

45°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.92 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
36 °F
Humidity
71%
Wind
ENE 2.8 mph
Gust
6.2 mph
Wind Chill
44 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
2 AM
43°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
3 AM
40°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
4 AM
38°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
5 AM
37°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
6 AM
35°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
7 AM
38°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
8 AM
42°F
Mostly sunny
Today
9 AM
46°F
Partly sunny
Today
10 AM
50°F
Partly sunny
Today
11 AM
53°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
12 PM
56°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
1 PM
59°F
Mostly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Wednesday

68 °F

A morning shower in spots; otherwise, clouds and breaks of sun


Mostly cloudy

Wednesday Night

35 °F

A shower in spots late in the evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

63 °F

A blend of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

39 °F

Mostly cloudy


Partly sunny

Friday

64 °F

Some sun; breezy in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Saturday

66 °F

Partial sunshine


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

41 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

78 °F

Rather cloudy and warmer; breezy in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

43 °F

Rather cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:59 AM
Sunset
7:56 PM

Based on AccuWeather data