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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – April 23, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Today, a ridge is passing overhead and we have, generally, sinking air and beautiful temperatures. A trough is headed this way (it is over Nevada and Montana earlier today) and will push a cold front down over Colorado tonight.  You can see this front to the northwest of the state at sunrise today (Figure 2). By this evening/ 6pm - the front is passing south of Denver.  Expect our wind shift, temperature drop and chance of rain coming in after 4pm (figure 3).

By midnight tonight (figure 4) the front has cleared south of Colorado, but rain and snow chances continue into the early morning Tuesday. Precipitation chances finally really drop off around 7 to 9am Tuesday.

There is no chance of severe weather, but general thunderstorms are possible today, as the front passes, over most of Colorado (Figure 5).

The GFS gives Longmont a minimal (to maybe a coating) of snow through this storm (Figure 6). For water, though, we seem to have under a 1/4th inch (Figure 7).

Figure 1: The 500mb forecast map for Monday 6am. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges. Pink dot is Longmont in all images.

Figure 2: The forecast surface analysis map for Monday AM from NCEP.

Figure 3: The forecast surface analysis map for Monday PM from NCEP.

Figure 4: The forecast surface analysis map for Tuesday AM from NCEP.

Figure 5: the forecast thunderstorm outlook for the US from the SPC in Normal OK for Monday.

Figure 6: the forecast total snowfall for Colorado from the GFS and weather5280.com between Sunday PM and Thursday PM (just to capture everything) from weather5280.com

Figure 7: the forecast total precipitation for Colorado from the GFS and weather5280.com between Sunday PM and Thursday PM (just to capture everything) from weather5280.com

The longer range forecast:

Once this minor storm clears, we warm up to the upper 70'sF with just a chance of rain now and then in the near future.  Nothing to show graphically!

Current Weather

Mostly sunny

Mostly sunny

76°F

UV Index
8 Very High
Pressure
29.75 Falling
Visibility
9 miles
Dewpoint
26 °F
Humidity
16%
Wind
WSW 5.8 mph
Gust
15.7 mph
Wind Chill
76 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
3 PM
74°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
4 PM
70°F
Partly sunny
Today
5 PM
65°F
Partly sunny
Today
6 PM
60°F
Partly sunny
Today
7 PM
55°F
Partly sunny
Today
8 PM
52°F
Partly cloudy
Today
9 PM
49°F
Partly cloudy
Today
10 PM
47°F
Partly cloudy
Today
11 PM
44°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
43°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
42°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
41°F
Partly cloudy w/ showers

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

76 °F

Partial sunshine; breezy with a shower this afternoon


Partly cloudy w/ showers

Friday Night

37 °F

Partly cloudy with a couple of showers late


Partly sunny

Saturday

66 °F

Sun and some clouds


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

40 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

76 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer; breezy in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

51 °F

Rather cloudy; windy late


Windy

Monday

60 °F

Winds gusting past 40 mph; cloudy and cooler


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

43 °F

Breezy in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

62 °F

Times of clouds and sun; windy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday Night

36 °F

Clearing


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:57 AM
Sunset
7:58 PM

Based on AccuWeather data