Editor's note: This story was originally published by Colorado Newsline. Read the original story here.
Colorado public health officials said in a press conference on Tuesday that they’re concerned by a leveling-off of key COVID-19 metrics and warned that a deadly fourth wave of infections is still possible before the full impact of vaccinations takes hold.
The number of Coloradans currently hospitalized with COVID-19 has spiked to 341 from 283 just three days ago, according to state data. While hospitalizations have steadily fallen over the last several months since peaking at 1,995 on Dec. 2, officials fear that the decline has leveled off more quickly than they’d hoped.
“We’ve really reached a bit of a high plateau in the state,” said Dr. Rachel Herlihy, a state epidemiologist with the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment. “This indicates to me that we’re not yet at a place where we have population-level protection from the vaccine.”
Dr. Jon Samet, an epidemiologist and the dean of the Colorado School of Public Health, presented modeling that estimated the risks posed by a decline in “transmission control” and the potential spread of more contagious and deadly COVID-19 variants.
COVID data
For information on Boulder County COVID cases, deaths, hospitalizations and trends, click here.
“A concern is that if the curve were to uptick from this high plateau, we’re starting at a point higher than we would want to be,” Samet said.
If Colorado’s transmission control were to drop to 60% — a level that the state neared prior to the onset of the third wave of infections in the fall of 2020, Samet said — state modeling estimates that more than 1,000 Coloradans could die between March 8 and June 1, even before variants, such as the one that originated in South Africa, are taken into account. With rapid variant spread, that figure could rise to more than 2,500 additional deaths.
By contrast, if Colorado maintains its current trajectory of 82% transmission control, modeling projects only about 220 to 229 additional deaths over the same period. Transmission control is achieved through mask-wearing, physical distancing and other forms of protection.
“The longer we hold on with the current transmission control level, the better,” Samet said. “It gives a chance for the vaccines to kick in.”
Current hospitalizations rose again on Tuesday, Gov. Jared Polis announced at the press conference, with 13 more Coloradans having been admitted for treatment for COVID-19.
“Not an alarming number in its own right,” Polis said. “But the trend that we’re very worried about and will be watching the next few days is if this continues to increase at this rate, we could be in trouble again soon.”
Colorado Newsline is part of States Newsroom, a network of news outlets supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Colorado Newsline maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Quentin Young for questions: [email protected]. Follow Colorado Newsline on Facebook and Twitter.
