Colorado’s Independent Legislative Redistricting Commission is a group of twelve ordinary citizens, including me, who are drawing new district lines for Colorado State House and State Senate elections. We’re planning on finalizing these lines by October 12th, and whatever we decide on will be in place until after the 2030 Census. So I come to you in urgent need of feedback.
These districts must have nearly equal population which poses a problem in Longmont. State House districts must contain around 88,826 people, and Longmont’s population is 98,885 people according to the 2020 Census. This means about 10,000 Longmont residents must be cut out of the Longmont district and represented in a neighboring district.
I’ve seen proposals that cut the northwest corner: north of 17th and west of Francis. I’ve seen proposals that cut the southwest neighborhoods: south of Nelson and west of Airport. It’s also possible to balance the population by cutting out all neighborhoods south of Ken Pratt. There is no good place to cut Longmont, but I’ve developed a proposal that I’d like your opinion on.
A map of this proposal can be found here. This proposal cuts Longmont along Pace, placing the eastern edge of the city in a district with Erie, Firestone, Frederick, and Dacono. I think this proposal has a few advantages, so I’ll give you the numbers to mull over as you form your opinion.
The 10,000 removed Longmont residents will only make up about 11% of whatever neighboring district they are placed in, so I think it’s important to keep them together, and to avoid placing them in a district dominated by larger communities. In this proposal Erie will be the largest community in the shared district with 30,038 people. Firestone has 16,381, Frederick has 14,513, and Dacono clocks in even smaller than these Longmont neighborhoods with 6,297 people. This makes me hopeful these Longmont neighborhoods will be able to make their voices heard without being drowned out by a larger community such as Loveland or Boulder.
From a political angle, recent election data shows that any district you draw containing the majority of Longmont will strongly favor Democratic candidates, and that’s the case in this proposal. The commission uses a cocktail of statewide elections from 2016-2020 to measure the partisan lean of proposed districts. This measurement shows Democrats typically beating Republicans in the Longmont district by a firm 29.9 percentage points. The shared district however would not be dominated by either major party. The same measurement shows a 2.1% Republican lean, small enough that either party could win the district. Looking at individual elections confirms this. In 2018 on the same ballot this proposed district would have favored the Democratic candidate for governor by 1.2% and the Republican candidate for CU Regent by the same amount. This sort of competitiveness has a tendency to focus a representative’s attention, and keep them responsive to community needs. A representative whose reelection is certain might neglect 11% of their constituents without consequences. A representative who can win or lose on a 2% swing simply can’t afford to neglect any of the communities they represent.
I think that this is one of the better proposals I’ve seen for the required cut in Longmont, but I want your thoughts, especially if you live east of Pace. Please post a public comment on the redistricting commission’s website and let me know whether we’re heading in the right direction.
Sincerely,
Commissioner Greenidge
Unaffiliated Voter-Longmont
