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SVVSD enrollment projected to grow by more than 1,100 over next 4 years

A district data team analyzed more than a dozen variables to project student enrollment.
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The St. Vrain Valley Schools planning team analyzed more than a dozen variables, including birth rates, to project student enrollment.

Enrollment in St. Vrain Valley Schools is expected to grow by more than 1,100 students over the next four years, according to the latest projections by the district’s planning team.

The group analyzed local birth rates, migration, population projections, housing and other variables to assess the growth.

Brendan Willits, the school district’s planning director, presented the projections during a study session Wednesday. He noted the predictions are conservative — the district could see up to 2,300 new students by 2027, according to his team’s higher projections.

The data team used statistics from the Colorado State Demography Office and the state’s Department of Local Affairs to determine the population growth in the state and the Front Range.

“Growth remains concentrated in the Front Range — there are pockets of the state that are really projected to start declining in population, and that is impacting other school districts,” Willits told the district’s Board of Education during the study session. “Housing costs and availability and natural resource issues could cause fluctuation in the projections from DORA, but really the Front Range is doing fairly well.”

The number of people under age 17 in Boulder County is expected to drop by more than 8% as the population ages, Willits said. In contrast, the same demographic in Weld County is expected to grow by more than 17% by 2030. 

“We are seeing heavy growth in Erie, Mead, Frederick and Firestone, which represents our Weld County region,” said Dr. Don Haddad, the school district’s superintendent.

One of the factors behind a lower growth rate of young people in Boulder County — and in many regions across the U.S., is fewer children per household — millennials are having fewer children, Willits said.

The number of births in the St. Vrain Valley School District is expected to grow over the next couple of years. Kindergarten enrollment is projected to increase steadily until 2025, but then see a slight decrease by 2027, the district data shows.

The planning team also looked at the history and estimates of building permits in the district.

“You can see a lot of permits in places like Erie, Longmont has a lot, (and) Firestone,” Willits said. 

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The St. Vrain Valley Schools planning team analyzed more than a dozen variables, including housing permits, to project student enrollment. Graph courtesy of St. Vrain Valley Schools planning team.

Some of the largest residential developments — ones with more than 100 units — are being built in Erie, Mead and Frederick.

After school enrollment dropped in districts across the state during the pandemic, St. Vrain Valley Schools teachers and counselors worked hard to bring those students back to school, district officials said.

“St. Vrain did recapture (lost students) so much better than most of the other districts,” Willits said.

 


Amber Fisher

About the Author: Amber Fisher

I'm thrilled to be an assistant editor with the Longmont Leader after spending the past decade reporting for news outlets across North America. When I'm not writing, you can find me snowboarding, reading fiction and running (poorly).
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