In Brief:
Severe weather chances are low, expect above normal temperatures this week with daily afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances.
Forecast Discussion:
The dominate player on the field is the Western U.S. ridge (even if there is a small short wave/low traveling through it up in Canada Monday - Figure 1 in the gallery). It is creating daily temperatures that are quite a bit above normal. We normally see a high of 77F right now. We will be 10-12F warmer than that. Still, there there is pretty good moisture around. The water vapor satellite image (Figure 2 in the gallery) shows that there IS a lot of moisture sitting around (white and grey colors across Colorado). The amount of water that can precipitate out the atmosphere in an ideal situation (a healthy thunderstorm, for example) is pretty good as well. Figure 3 in the gallery shows moisture (green shading) has a nice fetch from both the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico into Colorado. Severe weather chances (not shown) should remain to the east and north of Longmont and most I-25 communities.
The Longer Range Forecast:
Over the next 5 days, we simply see hot temperatures and the daily pulse of afternoon/evening thunderstorms (Figure 4 in the gallery). A trough does begin to approach the state from Wednesday into Friday (Figure 5 in the gallery) leading to a better chance of thunderstorms by Friday afternoon (Figure 4). Stay alert to lightning, that is the main risk each day.
The much Longer Range Forecast:
NOAA has issued the June outlook based on sea surface temperatures and model guidance. They are callling for normal (to maybe a touch above normal) temperatures for June (Figure 6 in the gallery) and near normal precipitatoin for the month (Figure 7 in the gallery). Normal is good, right?
