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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – December 8, 2017

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Friday midday update:

The data is in!  And we didn't get any snow. The warm up is underway (see Figure 1) as westerly flow and down slope warming have already created a belt of warmer air from Canada to Mexico.  Fun! But this very dry and gusty air has prompted fire weather and high wind advisories.

The current surface map (Figure 2) shows the path of snow through Mexico and southern Texas over the last couple of days and the current snow almost into Atlanta.  That is really cold air.

Figure 3 are the snow reports around Boulder county. There are a few touches of snow up in the high country, but not much. Figure 4 is rainfall, and it was just a trace where anything fell.

With the cold dense air moving east, the terrible winds in California should relax allowing firefighters to get a handle on the fires.

Figure 1: Weatherunderground reported surface temperatures midday Friday.

Figure 2: Current surface weather map midday Friday.

Figure 3: Reported snowfall Thursday AM to Friday AM from CoCoRaHS

Figure 4: Reported rainfallThursday AM to Friday AM from CoCoRaHS

The longer term forecast:

The western ridge (blue line in Figure 5) is moving towards us and will give us quite a long stint of above normal temperatures.  The normal high for this time of year is around 43F. We'll see mid-50's to lower 60's for the next 8-10 days.  And it will remain abnormally dry.

Fantasy Christmas Forecast (from accuweather.com):  Upper 40's for highs and mid teens for lows.  Partly Cloudy.  It is consistent with the last few peeks.

Figure 5: 500mb upper air forecast map from the GFS for Saturday PM.

Current Weather

Clear

Clear

64°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.13 Steady
Visibility
6 miles
Dewpoint
57 °F
Humidity
77%
Wind
W 1.2 mph
Gust
2.3 mph
Wind Chill
64 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
1 AM
66°F
Mostly clear
Today
2 AM
66°F
Clear
Today
3 AM
65°F
Clear
Today
4 AM
64°F
Partly cloudy
Today
5 AM
63°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 AM
63°F
Cloudy
Today
7 AM
65°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
8 AM
70°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 AM
76°F
Partly sunny
Today
10 AM
81°F
Partly sunny
Today
11 AM
85°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
12 PM
87°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Friday

92 °F

Turning cloudy


Partly cloudy w/ t-storms

Friday Night

63 °F

A thunderstorm in spots late this evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Saturday

92 °F

Partly sunny with a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Saturday Night

61 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Sunday

93 °F

Variable cloudiness with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

62 °F

Increasing cloudiness


Mostly cloudy

Monday

93 °F

Mostly cloudy


Mostly clear

Monday Night

61 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

94 °F

Intervals of clouds and sun


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday Night

62 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:46 AM
Sunset
8:27 PM

Based on AccuWeather data