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Update 10:30am 10/11: Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – October 11-12, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

After a small chance of one more dusting of snow this evening, we drop to about 11-14F Friday AM. We warm almost to 50F Friday afternoon and are mostly dry and comfortable 60's-70'sF for the next week.

10:30am Update 10/11:

The visible satellite image this morning shows the extent of the snow-pack from our first snow storm (Figure 1 update).

In the NextDoor site, I made the following snowfall prediction - I'll score myself in the final totals below:

Fort Collins: Tr-1", Berthoud: 1/2-2", Longmont: 1-3", Boulder: 2-5", Estes Park: 3-6", western Denver 2-4", eastern Denver: 1/2-2", Palmer Divide communities: 2-5".

Enjoy the nice weather now!

Final totals

  • Arvada: 3.8 inches
  • Aspen Park: 4.2 inches
  • Aurora: 1 inch
  • Boulder: 3.3 inches 2-5" (a hit)
  • Broomfield: 3.9 inches
  • Breckenridge: 6 inches
  • Centennial: 4.5 inches
  • Denver: 3.3 inches
  • Denver International Airport: 1 inch 1/2-2" (a hit)
  • Erie: 3 inches
  • Estes Park: 6.7 inches 3-6" (pretty much a hit, a bit under)
  • Evergreen: 5.5 inches
  • Federal Heights: 1.5 inches
  • Fort Collins: 2 inches Tr-1" (I busted under the amount)
  • Genesee: 4.5 inches
  • Golden: 3 inches
  • Greeley: 1.4 inches
  • Highlands Ranch: 2 inches 2-4" (a hit)
  • Kittredge: 3 inches
  • Lafayette: 3 inches
  • Lakewood: 0.3 inches
  • Littleton: 0.5 inches
  • Longmont: 2.1 inches 1-3" (A hit, but I saw 3.5" before the afternoon warm-up).
  • Loveland: 2 inches
  • Mountain View: 4.3 inches
  • Nederland: 4 inches
  • Niwot: 3.5 inches
  • Northglenn: 4.2 inches
  • Silverthorne: 0.5 inches
  • Steamboat Springs: 6.6 inches
  • Strasburg: 2.5 inches
  • Vail: 4.5 inches
  • Westminster: 2.2 inches
  • Windsor: 1.5 inches
Figure 1 update: The visible satellite image from 10:51am of the Southern Rockies GeoColor from STAR and NOAA.

End 10:30am Update 10/11.

Forecast Discussion:

The frontal passage yesterday was intense - with wind gusts to the 40mph zone around Longmont and 50+mph in Denver (which also experienced a big dust storm. I was standing outside blowing my sprinklers out and getting chilled to the bone.

The leading edge of this blast can be seen in Figure 1. Bugs picked up by the wind are concentrated and reflect the radar signal back to the dish. By midnight, the leading edge of the cold air had pushed to the New Mexico border (Figure 2). Channel 5 created a temperature drop graphic for Denver and south showing an almost 60F drop. This is a new record for Colorado in October (Figure 3). If we really drop to about 12F - we'll have about a 70F drop in a day and a half (Figure 4).

We might see one more dusting of snow tonight as another jet streak passes with a bit of moisture (Figure 5).

The Denver Post has listed the following snow totals (and their reporting times). Snow did continue to fall to around noon in most places:

Arvada, Co — 3.8 inches at 10:30 a.m. MDT
Arvada, Co — 3.8 inches at 10:30 a.m. MDT
Black Forest, Co — 2 inches at 12:25 p.m. MDT
Boulder, Co — 3.3 inches at 12 p.m. MDT
Crawford, Co — 1.6 inches at 7:45 a.m. MDT
Crescent Village, Co — 3 inches at 9:50 a.m. MDT
Denver Intl Airport, Co — 1 inch at 12 p.m. MDT
Eagle, Co — 2 inches at 6:55 a.m. MDT
Estes Park, Co — 6.7 inches at 7 a.m. MDT
Evergreen, Co — 4 inches at 10:41 a.m. MDT
Federal Heights, Co — 1.5 inches at 8:30 a.m. MDT
Florissant, Co — 2.7 inches at 11:51 a.m. MDT
Fort Collins, Co — 2 inches at 9:54 a.m. MDT
Fountain, Co — 1.5 inches at 1:33 p.m. MDT
Golden, Co — 3 inches at 9:35 a.m. MDT
Kittredge, Co — 3 inches at 9:01 a.m. MDT
Laporte, Co — 1.6 inches at 7 a.m. MDT
Longmont, Co — 1.5 inches at 7:54 a.m. MDT (I've had 3.5 inches as of 1pm in my yard in NE Colorado.)
Loveland, Co — 2 inches at 7:20 a.m. MDT
Milner, Co — 4.5 inches at 8 a.m. MDT
Montrose, Co — 1.7 inches at 7 a.m. MDT
Mountain View, Co — 4.3 inches at 11:59 a.m. MDT
Nederland, Co — 2 inches at 7:28 a.m. MDT
Niwot, Co — 3.5 inches at 12:55 p.m. MDT
Phippsburg, Co — 1.3 inches at 7 a.m. MDT
Pueblo West, Co — 1.7 inches at 12 p.m. MDT
Steamboat Springs, Co — 6.6 inches at 6 a.m. MDT
Strasburg, Co — 2.5 inches at 11:02 a.m. MDT
Sunshine, Co — 3.5 inches at 10:10 a.m. MDT
Wolcott, Co — 2.9 inches at 7 a.m. MDT

The Longer Range Forecast:

Things get quiet, dry, and comfortable after a cool-ish Friday (Figure 5). There are 70's returning!

Figure 1: The 5:09pm Wednesday screen capture of the radar and NOAA wind data and surface analysis map from MyRadar app from iOS.
Figure 2: the surface temperature anomaly (departure from normal) from the GFS for Wednesday noon for Thursday post midnight from weather5280.com.
Figure 3: 24 hour temperature change for Denver and southern Colorado from Channel 5 Colorado Springs.
Figure 4: The 71 degree expected temperature drop over 1.5 days from Denver 7 news.
Figure 5: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

58°F

UV Index
2 Low
Pressure
30.14 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
54 °F
Humidity
87%
Wind
ESE 2.7 mph
Gust
5.4 mph
Wind Chill
58 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
11 AM
58°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
12 PM
60°F
Showers
Today
1 PM
62°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
2 PM
63°F
Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
Today
3 PM
64°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
4 PM
64°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 PM
63°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 PM
61°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
7 PM
60°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 PM
58°F
Mostly sunny
Today
9 PM
55°F
Mostly clear
Today
10 PM
53°F
Mostly clear

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Friday

64 °F

Cool; a morning shower, then a heavy thunderstorm; significant risk of destructive hail; there can also be damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado


Intermittent clouds

Friday Night

48 °F

Mainly clear this evening; overcast late


Partly sunny

Saturday

84 °F

Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer


Clear

Saturday Night

54 °F

Clear


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

75 °F

Pleasant with times of clouds and sun


Clear

Sunday Night

53 °F

Clear


Mostly sunny

Monday

80 °F

Mostly sunny with a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Clear

Monday Night

52 °F

Clear


Mostly sunny

Tuesday

84 °F

Mostly sunny and pleasant


Mostly clear

Tuesday Night

53 °F

Mainly clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:31 AM
Sunset
8:27 PM

Based on AccuWeather data