In Brief:
Ample moisture and troughs/cut off lows to the west bring daily showers, numerous some days.
The Forecast Discussion:
The rain/showers/thunderstorms roll on. In just the last 48 hours, Longmont and Broomfield received about 1 to 1.5 inches of rain. Right now, no severe weather is expected, but the dotted green boxes (Figure 1) are days with afternoon thunderstorms and solid green boxes are periods of enhanced upflow that will keep showers going for much of the day(s).
We still have a blocking high over the center of the nation and a low, that sometimes cuts off from the jet stream flow, to our west (Figure 2). This pattern is keeping Canada very hot and dry - the fires keep burning, but the smoke is headed out east (Figure 4).
Over the next 5 days, alone, The I -25 folks should see 0.25 to 0.5 inch more water and many inches will fall in the mountains. Wow, are things green out there.
The Longer Range Forecast:
Over the next 10 days, the GFS is painting much of Colorado with 1-4 inches of total rainfall (Figure 5). Amazing.
Looking even further out, there is, as covered as a possibility about 4 months ago here, a strong El Nino setting up (Figure 6). In this pattern, the west coast eastward will expect to receive normal to above normal precipitation (flooding will remain a concern from California through Arizona and eastward (Figure 7). Colorado keeps normal precipitation going even if we may see somewhat warmer temperatures.
