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The Front Range Forecast: Some rain or much rain everyday

In Brief:

Ample moisture and troughs/cut off lows to the west bring daily showers, numerous some days.

The Forecast Discussion:

The rain/showers/thunderstorms roll on. In just the last 48 hours, Longmont and Broomfield received about 1 to 1.5 inches of rain. Right now, no severe weather is expected, but the dotted green boxes (Figure 1) are days with afternoon thunderstorms and solid green boxes are periods of enhanced upflow that will keep showers going for much of the day(s).

We still have a blocking high over the center of the nation and a low, that sometimes cuts off from the jet stream flow, to our west (Figure 2). This pattern is keeping Canada very hot and dry - the fires keep burning, but the smoke is headed out east (Figure 4).

Over the next 5 days, alone, The I -25 folks should see 0.25 to 0.5 inch more water and many inches will fall in the mountains. Wow, are things green out there.

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Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com
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Figure 2: the morning upper air forecast (500mb) from tropicaltidbits and the GFS.
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Figure 3: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com
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Figure 5: the Friday RAP model smoke forecast from NOAA.

The Longer Range Forecast:

Over the next 10 days, the GFS is painting much of Colorado with 1-4 inches of total rainfall (Figure 5). Amazing.

Looking even further out, there is, as covered as a possibility about 4 months ago here, a strong El Nino setting up (Figure 6). In this pattern, the west coast eastward will expect to receive normal to above normal precipitation (flooding will remain a concern from California through Arizona and eastward (Figure 7).  Colorado keeps normal precipitation going even if we may see somewhat warmer temperatures.

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Figure 5: the 10 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com
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Figure 6: the year to come El Nino forecast from NOAA.
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Figure 7: the climatology of an El Nino map from NOAA.

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org).
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Current Weather

Clear

Clear

67°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.97 Rising
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
48 °F
Humidity
50%
Wind
N 3.8 mph
Gust
7.7 mph
Wind Chill
67 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
8 PM
69°F
Partly cloudy
Today
9 PM
65°F
Mostly clear
Today
10 PM
62°F
Partly cloudy
Today
11 PM
58°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
57°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
56°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
54°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
3 AM
52°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
4 AM
51°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
5 AM
50°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
6 AM
49°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
7 AM
48°F
Mostly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Mostly sunny

Thursday

79 °F

Mostly sunny and nice


Partly cloudy

Thursday Night

48 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Friday

84 °F

Partly sunny


Mostly clear

Friday Night

50 °F

Mainly clear


Mostly sunny

Saturday

79 °F

Partly to mostly sunny and nice


Clear

Saturday Night

39 °F

Clear


Sunny

Sunday

82 °F

Plenty of sun


Clear

Sunday Night

44 °F

Clear


Sunny

Monday

83 °F

Sunny


Mostly clear

Monday Night

46 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:47 AM
Sunset
6:59 PM

Based on AccuWeather data