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Thur Update: The Front Range Forecast: Snowfall Round-Up update

In Brief:

Still warm, some mountain snows, snow for everyone Friday.

Thursday update:

The forecasts quickly dropped all those high end snow totals mentioned below. This will be a chilly, windy storm with very little moisture.

Snowfall Round-Up for Longmont:

Weatherunderground: Tr-1"

Channel 7 news: 1.8"

Channel 9 news: 1.5"

NWS: <1"

Weather 5280.com  T-1"

The GFS 0-0.5 inch.

The NAM 1.5-2.5 inches.

My forecast: 0-1 inch.

It's just not a big storm this time!

 

End Thursday update.

Tuesday update:

We continue with temperatures about 20F above normal until a cold front arrives overnight Thursday/Friday (Figure 1 update) . Pretty good snow chances in the low lands of I-25. Most models giving 1-3 inches of snow. Some (less used by me) models are jumping on 6 or 8 inch totals along I-25. I have low confidence of this but the snowfall round up will come out in a couple of days.

More details as the models (hopefully) come into agreement with each other!

figure1u_12052023
Figure 1 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

End Tuesday update.

Forecast Discussion:

Upslope flow is giving the western slopes and higher mountains much needed snow.  All we get is a view of clouds doubling the height of the Rockies, wind, and cool temperatures (Figure 1). A ridge returns to the West and we warm up to 20-25F above normal much of the week.

Over the next 5 days, the precipitation (moisture - Figure 3) and snow (Figure 4) falls mainly in the mountains.

 

figure1_12022023
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

The Long Range Forecast:

A new trough approaches Friday night/Saturday morning (Figure 2). We have a 'chance' of some snow from that system (Figure 1).

figure2_12022023
Figure 2: the forecast 500mb upper air map for next Saturday am from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
figure3_12022023
Figure 3: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com
figure4_12022023
Figure 4: the 5 day snowfall (10:1 ratio) forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org).
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Current Weather

Clear

Clear

51°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.91 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
8 °F
Humidity
17%
Wind
WSW 6 mph
Gust
14.5 mph
Wind Chill
51 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
11 PM
48°F
Clear
Tomorrow
12 AM
46°F
Clear
Tomorrow
1 AM
45°F
Clear
Tomorrow
2 AM
43°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
3 AM
42°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
4 AM
40°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
5 AM
39°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
6 AM
38°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
7 AM
39°F
Mostly sunny
Tomorrow
8 AM
42°F
Mostly sunny
Tomorrow
9 AM
45°F
Mostly sunny
Tomorrow
10 AM
52°F
Mostly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Sunny

Saturday

61 °F

Mild with brilliant sunshine; gusty winds and excessively dry weather result in a high fire threat


Clear

Saturday Night

38 °F

Clear


Mostly sunny

Sunday

64 °F

Mostly sunny, breezy and mild


Windy

Sunday Night

47 °F

Very windy; mild with increasing clouds


Windy

Monday

63 °F

Winds becoming strong; mostly cloudy and mild


Partly cloudy w/ showers

Monday Night

37 °F

Partly cloudy and windy; a passing shower late


Snow

Tuesday

41 °F

Windy and cooler with periods of snow, accumulating 1-3 inches


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

14 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Wednesday

45 °F

Sunny to partly cloudy


Partly cloudy

Wednesday Night

23 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:42 AM
Sunset
5:46 PM

Based on AccuWeather data