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Thur Update: The Front Range Forecast: Snowfall Round-Up update

In Brief:

Still warm, some mountain snows, snow for everyone Friday.

Thursday update:

The forecasts quickly dropped all those high end snow totals mentioned below. This will be a chilly, windy storm with very little moisture.

Snowfall Round-Up for Longmont:

Weatherunderground: Tr-1"

Channel 7 news: 1.8"

Channel 9 news: 1.5"

NWS: <1"

Weather 5280.com  T-1"

The GFS 0-0.5 inch.

The NAM 1.5-2.5 inches.

My forecast: 0-1 inch.

It's just not a big storm this time!

 

End Thursday update.

Tuesday update:

We continue with temperatures about 20F above normal until a cold front arrives overnight Thursday/Friday (Figure 1 update) . Pretty good snow chances in the low lands of I-25. Most models giving 1-3 inches of snow. Some (less used by me) models are jumping on 6 or 8 inch totals along I-25. I have low confidence of this but the snowfall round up will come out in a couple of days.

More details as the models (hopefully) come into agreement with each other!

figure1u_12052023
Figure 1 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

End Tuesday update.

Forecast Discussion:

Upslope flow is giving the western slopes and higher mountains much needed snow.  All we get is a view of clouds doubling the height of the Rockies, wind, and cool temperatures (Figure 1). A ridge returns to the West and we warm up to 20-25F above normal much of the week.

Over the next 5 days, the precipitation (moisture - Figure 3) and snow (Figure 4) falls mainly in the mountains.

 

figure1_12022023
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

The Long Range Forecast:

A new trough approaches Friday night/Saturday morning (Figure 2). We have a 'chance' of some snow from that system (Figure 1).

figure2_12022023
Figure 2: the forecast 500mb upper air map for next Saturday am from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
figure3_12022023
Figure 3: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com
figure4_12022023
Figure 4: the 5 day snowfall (10:1 ratio) forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Light snow

Light snow

7°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.81 Falling
Visibility
2 miles
Dewpoint
2 °F
Humidity
83%
Wind
NE 2.2 mph
Gust
4.3 mph
Wind Chill
7 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
2 AM
7°F
Snow
Today
3 AM
7°F
Snow
Today
4 AM
7°F
Snow
Today
5 AM
6°F
Snow
Today
6 AM
6°F
Cloudy
Today
7 AM
1°F
Cloudy
Today
8 AM
2°F
Snow
Today
9 AM
4°F
Flurries
Today
10 AM
6°F
Snow
Today
11 AM
7°F
Snow
Today
12 PM
9°F
Cloudy
Today
1 PM
11°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Flurries

Tuesday

15 °F

Cloudy and much colder with snow flurries; watch for slippery spots early


Snow

Tuesday Night

1 °F

Frigid with snow and flurries, accumulating 1-3 inches; untreated surfaces will be slippery


Snow

Wednesday

13 °F

Occasional morning snow, accumulating 3-6 inches; otherwise, cloudy and cold; storm total snowfall 4-8"; expect slippery travel early, then some improvement


Mostly cloudy w/ flurries

Wednesday Night

-8 °F

A stray flurry this evening; otherwise, partly cloudy with temperatures falling to near the record of -13; extreme cold can be dangerous for outdoor activities


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

29 °F

Cold with periods of clouds and sunshine; extreme cold can be dangerous for outdoor activities


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

17 °F

Becoming cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

48 °F

Milder with partial sunshine; a passing afternoon shower or two


Snow

Friday Night

23 °F

Snow and flurries at times in the evening; otherwise, low clouds


Dreary

Saturday

30 °F

Colder with low clouds; a snow shower around in the afternoon


Flurries

Saturday Night

14 °F

A little evening snow; otherwise, rather cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:59 AM
Sunset
5:31 PM

Based on AccuWeather data