In March 2020, Covid-19 buckled the nation’s economy and caused rates of unemployment to skyrocket. At the end of February, unemployment in Longmont held steady at 2.8%. Then as businesses began to temporarily close their doors, it grew to 4.4%. Statewide, unemployment swelled to 11.3% in April. With citizens and business owners cautiously resuming former activities, everyone is wondering what the future holds.
New data suggests that unemployment rates are already slowing both locally and state-wide. According to a press release from the Colorado Department of Labor and Unemployment, the number of regular unemployment claims in the state has declined six weeks in a row. In the last week of May, 15,603 initial claims were filed, compared to the 17,825 to the week prior.
Via email, Jessica Erickson, CEO and president of Longmont Economic Development Partnership (LEDP), expressed that it is hard to understand the magnitude of the shut down’s short-term or long-term impacts on unemployment. “Nationally, it is estimated that April unemployment was at 14.7%, down from 3.5% in February. If the millions of people who have been furloughed and expect to return to their jobs are counted, the jobless rate is more like 20% nationally. If you look at the U6 unemployment rate, which captures both the unemployed and the underemployed, that number is nearly 23% nationally.”
The top five industries that have been affected include: accommodation and food services, retail trade, healthcare and social services, waste management and arts, entertainment and recreation.
According to data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, filings in Longmont have been declining over the last several weeks. While unemployment rates will continue to be higher than historical filings, projections have been made that predict as many as 50% of those that have lost jobs nationally may not return.
“We don’t even fully understand yet which, or what jobs will return as businesses in the hardest hit industries re-open or what jobs are at risk for loss in the near- and long-term,” said Erickson.
For those who have experienced hardship during this time, the Boulder County workforce has compiled a list of resources on its website. A plethora of information is provided, including links to virtual job fairs, guidance to prevent eviction, means to secure affordable food, tips for finding legal help, tools to manage mental and emotional health, and advice on traveling during public transit restrictions.
When asked what additional efforts are being taken to support Longmont citizens during this challenging time, Scott Cook, CEO of the Longmont Area Chamber of Commerce, commented via email, “This has several answers. Of course reopening will do the most to help and that is beginning to happen. There are also a number of other things. Some employees are making more on unemployment so businesses are finding it hard to bring them back.”
Cook continued,“From the employee standpoint this can be understandable. If their costs have gone up (such as childcare) or they are uncertain of the future, there is not a lot of incentive to go back to work. Childcare, this is more limited than before so many parents that wish to work may not be able to yet. We are going to need to find ways to address the income gap between unemployment and employment and childcare help to bring more people back to work.”
Ericson said,, “People returning to work as businesses reopen should have some positive effect on these numbers, but it remains to be seen and would be hard to predict how much, and how long it will last as some businesses may find that they ultimately can’t sustain under the public health mandates and decide in the coming months or years to shut down and ultimately have to lay those people off again.”
In May, the Colorado Legislative Council released an economic forecast for 2020 that indicates the state will lose 169,900 jobs but gain back 34,000 in 2021. Gary Horvath, a Colorado economist, predicts that unemployment claims will continue to decline and that the economy will turn positive in quarter 3 (which begins in July, just four weeks away).
“There’s also the potential for another surge of the virus, and another future shut down that would further devastate businesses and employment. It is going to be many months, and ultimately a look back rather than a forward-looking prediction before we fully understand the magnitude of this crisis on jobs and employment in this country,” Erickson concluded.
Forging a path forward will undoubtedly be tricky. But, as Cook wrote via email, “One very important solution to local unemployment is us. If we want to see local unemployment go down, each of us has a role in that. If each of us would be mindful to pick up a meal at one of our many restaurants, shop local retail, hire local professionals etc, we can conquer this!”
