As Colorado growth starts to slow slightly, the Colorado State Demographer wants employers to be prepared for an aging population.
Elizabeth Garner was a keynote speaker at People Powered: An Economic Outlook on Wednesday at the Longmont Museum. She explained to the crowd of business leaders that while Colorado’s population is still growing, that growth is slowing.
“I know you don’t believe me and, honestly, when I was driving here I wouldn’t necessarily believe me either,” she said.
Garner warned that the tightening of the labor force that Colorado is seeing today is just the beginning.
Longmont sits in a very unique position when it comes to Colorado’s population trends. In Boulder County, deaths are outpacing births and 1,200 more people left the county than moved in last year — but Weld County alone was responsible for 43% of the total growth of the state’s under 18 population over the last decade.
Garner expects the state to grow by more than 600,000 people in the next decade, but nearly half of that growth will be in people over 65. Colorado isn’t attracting retirees, but instead seeing the large Baby Boomer population aging out of the workforce.
At the same time, the state’s under 18 population is smaller than previous years.
“What I want you to do is be prepared for whatever (population growth) ends up being,” Garner said. “If it ends up being super slow? Be ready. If it ends up being faster? Be ready. Be ready for what could happen in future.”
While Boulder County mainly attracts people under 25, the area sees out migration for every age past 30, which Garner attributed to housing affordability. Weld, on the other hand, continues to attract all age groups.
She pointed to housing as a key challenge when it comes to employment.
“Why do you care about housing?” Garner asked. “Because that’s where your jobs sleep at night.”
Colorado needs to be building 40,000 units a year to accommodate its population growth, which the state did not keep up with in the years after the recession. In 2016, Colorado saw its lowest ever ratio of units built to households forms, which correlates with when house prices started spiking.
Garner said age is the biggest factor impacting housing right now, and used herself as an example. She and her partner are the only two in their 3,500 square foot house, now that her two children have moved out.
“Over this decade, I’m hoping to age out of the workforce,” Garner said. “You think I’m moving? No. I’m kind of happy where I am. Where’s the next State Demographer going to live? Not my home. Four hundred thousand of us are doing the same thing this decade. The last decade? Five hundred thousand doing the same thing. We have never had such a large share of older adults, and how it influences housing is huge.”
Baby Boomers continue to own the largest share of residential real estate in the United States and in Colorado. In Colorado, there are more 60-year-olds right now than there are 0-year-olds, which will have big implications for several decades.
Garner predicts that the next decade of growth in Colorado will be flat or declining for ages under 18 and 18-24, with a little growth for 25-44 if the state can attract and retain them, and slow growth for 45-65. Those over 65 will be the fastest growing demographic.
She projects similar trends for Boulder and Weld counties, though there will also be a lot of competition over the larger group of young people in Weld.
Most of all, Garner cautioned that the state will be seeing the slowest growth amongst people entering the labor force, while the fastest growth is with those leaving the labor force.
