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I trust you all had the opportunity to review the December 2023 stats report that we shared last week. As promised, I am excited to delve into some year-end and year-over-year (YoY) analysis. This report is our most comprehensive yet, summarizing key categories in our monthly Boulder, Longmont, and Northern Colorado reports. For the first time, we've combined these summaries to provide the most extensive snapshot of Northern Colorado ever produced.
I encourage each of you to share this information with your clients to help them navigate the current market trends. This concise two-page report begins with the NoCo area and extends to cover most of Boulder County. Let's start at the top with NoCo and work our way through BoCo to highlight notable observations.
A predominant topic in 2023 has been the decline in sales compared to recent years, coupled with lower inventory. Nationwide, according to NAR, both listings and sales hit 20-year lows. However, unlike the forced credit sales in 2008, today's homeowners, benefiting from high equity positions and the option of trading their low mortgage percent in for one at double or triple the rate, opted to stay put, resulting in fewer listings.
For those who did move, they experienced a silver lining. Despite facing higher interest rates for the next few years, they did not pay a premium for their homes compared to 2022. For the first time in a decade, prices did not see a year-over-year surge. Examining the NoCo report reveals only two instances of an average or median YoY price increase exceeding 3.9% - Loveland attached homes and Berthoud single-family homes, up by 5.0% and 10.8%, respectively, both increases were significantly influenced by the abundance of new construction.
Complete Year-over-Year Stats for All Boulder County and Northern Colorado
The expected increase in days on market (DOM) in slower markets is evident across the board, settling within a range of 51-81 days, with the lower end found in more active markets. The exception is the Loveland attached market (down from 145 to 110), primarily impacted by new construction, as we've discussed previously.
For the first time, I decided to aggregate all Northern Colorado markets to calculate an average price for 2022 versus 2023. While this approach may seem unconventional, the overall average price in Northern Colorado dropped by 2.1%, Don’t freak out, and don’t let that be the headline. It’s a minuscule $11,862 and it’s primarily due to the size and influence of the Windsor/Timnath/Severance/
Moving on to Boulder County, the trends mirror those in Northern Colorado. Every area saw fewer sales than the year before, except for Erie, where 44% of sales were new construction. Notably, new construction in Erie significantly increased in 2023 (305) compared to 2022 (126). Builders have no fear of this market.
DOM figures in Boulder County range from 48 to 81 days, mirroring NoCo closely. Median and average price results in Boulder County have more fluctuations, particularly in small markets like Lafayette, Louisville, and Superior. The Boulder attached market appears to show a decline of 13.1%, but this is largely due to exceptionally high 2022 Boulder condo prices influenced by 14 sales above $3M. In 2023, with only two $3M+ sales, it's not a decline but a return to normalcy.
Consistent themes of sales prices, days on market, and declining listings resonate throughout this report. Some fluctuations in price are more pronounced than others, but the Longmont single-family, Longmont attached, Carbon Valley single-family, and south Boulder County condos all exhibit negligible median and average price changes. The largest swing in this group was a 1.8% increase in Longmont attached median price.
A number I recently said I’d never calculate is on the bottom right of page one. It’s the average sales price for the BoCo report. I crunched all the data, single-family and attached, and calculated an overall average sales price of $818,590 for 2023. This is up 5.0% over 2022. When I look at the individual areas it seems a little high, so I double-checked my work and it’s right.
The box in the bottom right of page one also provides additional totals for all Northern Colorado, revealing a 15.5% decline in total sales volume. This decline results from a 10.3% decline in single-family and a 6.5% decline in attached listings. The delta between listings and sales comprises withdrawn and expired listings. For your entertainment, all sales in all areas, both single-family and attached, totaled a staggering $7,168,276,513 in 2023 through the MLS - over $7 billion worth! This represents a significant portion of our economy. Ultimately, the average price of a home sold in both Boulder County and Northern Colorado reports increased to $652,551, up from $641,994 in 2022. An overall gain of 1.6%.
I hope you find this information valuable. Here's to an amazing 2024!
Cheers,
Kyle Snyder
