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When agents tell me “Something seems different, but it’s hard to say why”. They hesitate to say slow, but then that word sneaks its way out into the conversation. I liken it to traveling at Mach 2.5 then slowing down to Mach 1. You are still moving very fast, but comparatively speaking, it’s much slower. No, I’ve never traveled at Mach speed, but it feels like I am almost every day. Here are a few points to support my theory.
Days on Market – last year in June, July and August our DOM were 53, 55 and 51 respectively. This year the results are (in order) 25, 35 and 30. That means thing are moving a LOT faster than last year.
The List to Sold Price results for this summer: April 105%, May 108%, June 106%, July 105%, and August 103%. With this kind of activity an agent will work much harder and faster to get these deals under contract in what feels like a tornado. And if you are lucky enough to have a listing that sits on the market for 30 days, you are in a big, brown tornado because you didn’t sell your clients overpriced home in the hottest market in history! Either way, you feel like you are traveling at Mach speed.
If you click on the link below to view the .pdf version of my stats this next part will make a little more sense. The closed sales activity in Longmont has historically seen a dip in July and an increase in August. The past three years the sales curve has gone from its traditional V shape to an inverted V. In the inverted V trend, June sales remained steady, July sales jumped 10% and August sales dipped 10%...opposite of what we’d expect to see.
August 2021 Longmont Area Real Estate Statistics (.pdf)
August 2021 Longmont Area Real Estate Statistics (.jpg)
If we combine the August “cool off”, with the list to sales ratio dipping to 103% and days on market sitting at a brisk 30 days, I can understand why it’s hard to pinpoint the temperature of the market. In my estimation, the sagging August for the past 3 years has been a clear case of buyer fatigue. From this point forward, in any year, we see a steady decline in sales volume through the end of the year with a couple of random surprises… except for last year when we saw a super strong finish to the year where sales accelerated into December. We could see this happen again, but only time will tell.
Go back to the sale report and look at the data for sales in all areas. Only Longmont attached homes saw an increase in monthly sales. The rest fell like a rock. With days on market falling like a rock in all areas, and prices still jumping 11%-20%, the only explanation is low inventory, buyer fatigue and sticker shock. Interest rates aren’t an issue, so if you think the market is slowing…it’s either a seasonal norm or a month of pause before the end of year kicks it into high gear. Neither is anything to worry about.
