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Wednesday Update: Front Range Forecast: Another snowy morning, hazardous weather outlook

In Brief:

Another snowy morning followed by a pleasant warm up.

Wednesday update:

Our last storm delivered with just over 4 inches of snow.  The communities from Longmont to Broomfield should see 1-3 inches from this storm.  Timing: snow should fall around 4am to 10am or so.

 

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Chances for light snowfall increase over the mountains after
midnight tonight, otherwise no significant weather this afternoon
or overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A low pressure system will move across Colorado on Thursday
producing light snow mainly across the I-25 corridor, foothills, and
northern mountains. Snowfall estimates are 1-3" for the I-25
corridor, 1-5" in the foothills and northern mountains, and a trace
to an inch across the far eastern plains.

This snow will impact travel conditions during the morning and early afternoon on
Thursday. Thursday night will see cold temperatures falling below
zero in the Greeley area and the single digits across much of the
plains. Friday through Monday will be mild and dry. The pattern
shifts to cooler and wetter conditions by Tuesday and Wednesday
next week.

End Wednesday update.

Monday update:

The storm discussed below is on track for about 2-4 (maybe 5) inches of snow from Longmont to Broomfield.

The NWS has issued the following Winter Weather Advisory for all of Colorado east of the Divide.

ISSUED: 12:14 PM JAN. 24, 2022 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations from 2 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Colorado.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Roads will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on
slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact
the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for Colorado can be obtained by calling 5 1 1 or by going
to www.cotrip.org

End Monday update:

Forecast Discussion:

The weekend will be mild and dry allowing for some melting to take place.  Roads will become dry again (Figure 1). Our next cold front comes in the longer range forecast below...

Figure1_01222022
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast from weatherunderground.com for Denver, CO.

 

The Longer Range Forecast:

Figure 1 shows a cold front sweeping across the state Monday around 3pm.  Snow chances pick up rapidly behind the front as temperatures drop.  This will begin an about 16-20 hour period of a good snow chances (Figure 2). This system has a bit of an extra punch as there is a shortwave trough (the L) embedded in a large trough stretching across the nation (Figure 3).

Beyond that, things become quiet and seasonable again.

(Early) Snowfall Roundup for the Longmont/Broomfield areas:

The weatherunderground model  1-3"
The North American Model (NAM) 2.5-4"
The Global Forecast Model (GFS) 2-3"

The NAM and GFS are in more disagreement up around Fort Collins. The NAM drops 1/2-2 inches there while the GFS goes more for 4-6"

Stay Tuned!

Figure2_01222022
Figure 2: the 6 hour averaged precipitation around Tuesday noon from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com

 

Figure3_01222022
Figure 3:the 500mb upper air forecast map for Tuesday PM from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure4_01222022
Figure 4: the 5 day (10:1 ratio) total snowfall forecast from the NAM and weather5280.com
Figure5_01222022
Figure 5: the 5 day (10:1 ratio) total snowfall forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org).
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Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

61°F

UV Index
2 Low
Pressure
30.11 Falling
Visibility
9 miles
Dewpoint
36 °F
Humidity
40%
Wind
NNE 2.2 mph
Gust
5.3 mph
Wind Chill
61 °F

12 Hour Forecast

Today
5 PM
58°F
Cloudy
Today
6 PM
56°F
Showers
Today
7 PM
54°F
Cloudy
Today
8 PM
50°F
Rain
Today
9 PM
48°F
Cloudy
Today
10 PM
45°F
Rain
Today
11 PM
45°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
45°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
44°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
44°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
43°F
Rain
Tomorrow
4 AM
43°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Showers

Sunday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy and cool; a passing afternoon shower or two


Showers

Sunday Night

41 °F

Mostly cloudy with occasional rain


Thunderstorms

Monday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy and cool; a thundershower in spots in the afternoon


Rain

Monday Night

44 °F

Periods of rain


Rain

Tuesday

54 °F

Cooler with on-and-off rain and drizzle


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday Night

37 °F

Turning out clear; freezing temperatures in the normally colder spots


Mostly sunny

Wednesday

70 °F

Mostly sunny and warmer


Mostly clear

Wednesday Night

43 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Thursday

85 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer


Partly cloudy

Thursday Night

50 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:39 AM
Sunset
8:16 PM

Based on AccuWeather data

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