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Mon Update: Front Range Forecast: Snow totals

In Brief:

Cool spring-like weather with showers every few days.

Monday Update:

The storm is departing midday Monday. A line of converging air formed over I-25 from Longmont to Ft. Collins.  The storm WAY over produced snow compared to expectations (see the GFS below - Figure 1 update).  Figure 2 update shows widespread 6-7 inches of snow in town. Further north, there were 11 inch depths reported!  Pretty incredible. And great additional moisture.

As an update, Thursday's storm is shrinking in expected strength, but I'll keep an eye on it.

.

figure2u_03272023
Figure 2 update: the snow totals through 7am Monday from CoCoRaHS.com

End Monday update.

Sunday Update:

After our 1 inch snow Friday night, another storm approaches for the overnight Sunday/Monday. Ft. Collins and Boulder might see 2-3 (locally 4) inches of snow while places south of Ft. Collins look like they should only see a coating to an inch or two. 

figure1u_03262023
Figure 1 update: the 48 hour snowfall total at 10:1 ratio from the GFS and weatherunderground.com

End Sunday update.

Forecast Discussion:

Temperatures have definitely improved recently. The weekend will be unusually cool (compared to the great weekends we've been having).

There is a pretty good shot of moisture coming in Friday PM through Saturday AM. There might be an inch or so of snow on grassy areas after some rain, but roads should remain only wet or slightly slushy (Figure 1). There is another shot of moisture Sunday night into Monday, but is looks less impactful.  The surface forecast maps from the National Weather Service (Figure 2 and 3) show snow/rain falling over Colorado (even it it might be a bit overdone). 

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Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
figure2_03232023
Figure 2: the Friday NWS surface forecast map.
figure3_03232023
Figure 3: the Saturday NWS surface forecast map.

The Long Range Forecast:

Looking out five days, these small systems might drop 1-2 inches along I-25 and a bit more in the mountains (Figure 4). It looks like rain + snow might total up to a liquid equivalent of 0.25 to 0.5 inch of moisture (Figure 5). Every bit helps!

figure4_03232023
Figure 4: the 5 day snowfall (10:1 ratio) forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com
figure5_03232023
Figure 4: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

66°F

UV Index
2 Low
Pressure
30.19 Steady
Visibility
6 miles
Dewpoint
56 °F
Humidity
71%
Wind
NNW 1.2 mph
Gust
1.8 mph
Wind Chill
66 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
8 AM
70°F
Sunny
Today
9 AM
76°F
Sunny
Today
10 AM
82°F
Sunny
Today
11 AM
86°F
Sunny
Today
12 PM
89°F
Mostly sunny
Today
1 PM
91°F
Partly sunny
Today
2 PM
92°F
Partly sunny
Today
3 PM
92°F
Mostly cloudy w/ showers
Today
4 PM
93°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
5 PM
93°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
6 PM
91°F
Cloudy
Today
7 PM
89°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ showers

Sunday

93 °F

Partly sunny with a passing shower this afternoon


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

62 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Monday

94 °F

Some sun, then increasing clouds with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon


Mostly clear

Monday Night

59 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

92 °F

Sun through high clouds


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

60 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

72 °F

Times of sun and clouds with a thunderstorm in the afternoon; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds


Mostly cloudy

Wednesday Night

58 °F

An evening thunderstorm; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Thursday

86 °F

Warmer with variable cloudiness; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

58 °F

Clearing


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:42 AM
Sunset
8:30 PM

Based on AccuWeather data