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Mon Update: Front Range Forecast: Snow totals

In Brief:

Cool spring-like weather with showers every few days.

Monday Update:

The storm is departing midday Monday. A line of converging air formed over I-25 from Longmont to Ft. Collins.  The storm WAY over produced snow compared to expectations (see the GFS below - Figure 1 update).  Figure 2 update shows widespread 6-7 inches of snow in town. Further north, there were 11 inch depths reported!  Pretty incredible. And great additional moisture.

As an update, Thursday's storm is shrinking in expected strength, but I'll keep an eye on it.

.

figure2u_03272023
Figure 2 update: the snow totals through 7am Monday from CoCoRaHS.com

End Monday update.

Sunday Update:

After our 1 inch snow Friday night, another storm approaches for the overnight Sunday/Monday. Ft. Collins and Boulder might see 2-3 (locally 4) inches of snow while places south of Ft. Collins look like they should only see a coating to an inch or two. 

figure1u_03262023
Figure 1 update: the 48 hour snowfall total at 10:1 ratio from the GFS and weatherunderground.com

End Sunday update.

Forecast Discussion:

Temperatures have definitely improved recently. The weekend will be unusually cool (compared to the great weekends we've been having).

There is a pretty good shot of moisture coming in Friday PM through Saturday AM. There might be an inch or so of snow on grassy areas after some rain, but roads should remain only wet or slightly slushy (Figure 1). There is another shot of moisture Sunday night into Monday, but is looks less impactful.  The surface forecast maps from the National Weather Service (Figure 2 and 3) show snow/rain falling over Colorado (even it it might be a bit overdone). 

figure1_03232023
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
figure2_03232023
Figure 2: the Friday NWS surface forecast map.
figure3_03232023
Figure 3: the Saturday NWS surface forecast map.

The Long Range Forecast:

Looking out five days, these small systems might drop 1-2 inches along I-25 and a bit more in the mountains (Figure 4). It looks like rain + snow might total up to a liquid equivalent of 0.25 to 0.5 inch of moisture (Figure 5). Every bit helps!

figure4_03232023
Figure 4: the 5 day snowfall (10:1 ratio) forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com
figure5_03232023
Figure 4: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

81°F

UV Index
10 Very High
Pressure
30.11 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
42 °F
Humidity
25%
Wind
SE 2.8 mph
Gust
8 mph
Wind Chill
81 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
1 PM
81°F
Mostly sunny
Today
2 PM
83°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
3 PM
84°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
4 PM
83°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 PM
80°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 PM
78°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
7 PM
75°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 PM
71°F
Partly sunny
Today
9 PM
67°F
Partly cloudy
Today
10 PM
63°F
Partly cloudy
Today
11 PM
59°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
57°F
Partly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny

Sunday

84 °F

Very warm with sunshine mixing with some clouds; windy this afternoon


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

49 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Monday

89 °F

Mostly sunny and very warm with the temperature approaching the record of 91 set in 1962


Clear

Monday Night

55 °F

Clear and mild


Partly sunny

Tuesday

87 °F

Remaining very warm with partial sunshine; breezy in the afternoon


Clear

Tuesday Night

53 °F

Clear


Mostly cloudy

Wednesday

70 °F

Cooler with sun followed by clouds; windy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

47 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

66 °F

Intervals of clouds and sunshine


Partly cloudy

Thursday Night

45 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:49 AM
Sunset
8:05 PM

Based on AccuWeather data