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Saturdaty Update: Front Range Forecast: Warm and windy again

In Brief:

Very warm and windy conditions return.

Saturday Update:

Very warm (70F today!) weather returns and the winds pick up again creating fire weather danger. We return to seasonable temperatures with low precipitation chances until we get to Thursday. The week-end storm looks fairly warm and not particularly wet, but I'll keep an eye on it here.  Go out and play - it is beautiful out there!

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Figure 1 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

End Saturday update.

The Forecast Discussion:

We have a few days of unusual warmth and wind creating red flag fire warning conditions (Figure 1).  A strong, but fast moving, cold front hits Monday night.  (See the Longer Range forecast below for more).

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Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

The Longer Range Forecast:

The approaching upper air trough stretches from Canada down into the Pacific (Figure 2).  If this could have arrived as a cut-off low (as the models showed a week ago) - we could have had significant state-wide snowfall.  But, it will move through rather quickly. The peak snowfall for the storm appears to center on lunchtime Tuesday (high sun angle will make sticking snow difficult to achieve - Figure 3).

Currently, the GFS (Figure 4) gives Longmont 2-4 inches.  The NAM (Figure 5) gives us 1-3 inches with more quickly piling up closer to the mountains.

More later!

After that passes, it looks like we return to the 60's very quickly.

 

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Figure 2: the 500mb upper air forecast map from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
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Figure 3: the surface conditions forecast map from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
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Figure 4: the 10:1 snowfall forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com through Wednesday.
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Figure 5: the 10:1 snowfall forecast from the NAM and weather5280.com through Wednesday.

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

71°F

UV Index
2 Low
Pressure
29.46 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
10 °F
Humidity
9%
Wind
SSW 7 mph
Gust
15.7 mph
Wind Chill
71 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
5 PM
66°F
Cloudy
Today
6 PM
61°F
Showers
Today
7 PM
58°F
Cloudy
Today
8 PM
56°F
Cloudy
Today
9 PM
53°F
Cloudy
Today
10 PM
51°F
Cloudy
Today
11 PM
50°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
49°F
Showers
Tomorrow
1 AM
49°F
Showers
Tomorrow
2 AM
47°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
47°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
4 AM
45°F
Showers

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ showers

Monday

75 °F

Sun giving way to increasing clouds; breezy this afternoon with a couple of showers


Showers

Monday Night

44 °F

Breezy this evening; considerable cloudiness with a couple of showers


Mostly cloudy w/ showers

Tuesday

68 °F

A shower in the morning; otherwise, variable cloudiness, windy and not as warm


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

44 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Wednesday

73 °F

Warm with some sun, then turning cloudy


Rain and snow

Wednesday Night

36 °F

Cloudy; an evening shower in spots followed by rain and snow showers late


Rain and snow

Thursday

46 °F

Cloudy and chilly with a couple of showers of rain or snow


Dreary

Thursday Night

35 °F

Low clouds


Mostly cloudy

Friday

54 °F

Warmer with some sun, then turning cloudy


Rain and snow

Friday Night

32 °F

Cloudy; a mix of snow and rain in the evening followed by snow showers late


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:21 AM
Sunset
7:40 PM

Based on AccuWeather data