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Wed Update: Front Range Forecast: Warmth now, snow weekend?

In Brief:

Warm now, possible weekend first snow.

Wednesday update:

The earlier mentioned Thursday-ish snow storm will be restricted to the northern mountains. Our (probably real this time) first chance of snow is forecast to arrive Saturday (Figure 1 update). I'm on vacation this week, but will be watching this closely! 

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Figure 1 update: the 6 hour precipitation and surface pressure forecast map from the GFS for Saturday noon from tropicaltidbits.com

End Wednesday update.

The Forecast Discussion:

We still have a few days of warmth and dry air.  We set a new hight temperature record for Friday at DIA! The near 80's continue through Monday (Figure 1).

figure1_10202023
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

The Longer Range Forecast:

The graphical forecast does not show significant rain or snow (Figure 1), but the GFS is hinting at a good storm late week.  A trough crosses the state Thursday/Friday (Figure 2). It gives us a good (first) snow storm (Figure 3).  That gives Longmont about 1-2 inches of snow (Figure 4).  Overall, the GFS givves most of us about 1/2 inch of water or less (Figure 5).  Keep praying for more moisture!

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Figure 2: the 500mb upper air forecast map for early Friday AM from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
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Figure 3: the 6 hour precipitation type for early Friday morning from the GFS.
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Figure 4: the 10 day 10:1 snowfall forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com
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Figure 5: the 10 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

69°F

UV Index
1 Low
Pressure
30.21 Steady
Visibility
6 miles
Dewpoint
49 °F
Humidity
49%
Wind
W 2.8 mph
Gust
6.4 mph
Wind Chill
69 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
5 PM
70°F
Cloudy
Today
6 PM
68°F
Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
Today
7 PM
65°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 PM
61°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
60°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 PM
58°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 PM
57°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
12 AM
56°F
Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
Tomorrow
1 AM
55°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
2 AM
54°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
53°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
4 AM
53°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Tuesday

78 °F

Not as warm with times of clouds and sun; a thunderstorm or two this afternoon; thunderstorms can bring gusty winds, hail and localized flooding


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Tuesday Night

50 °F

A thunderstorm this evening; otherwise, increasing clouds


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Wednesday

73 °F

Some sun, then turning cloudy with a couple of thundershowers in the afternoon


Partly cloudy w/ t-storms

Wednesday Night

50 °F

A couple of showers and a thunderstorm in the evening; otherwise, clearing


Mostly sunny

Thursday

74 °F

Mostly sunny and pleasant


Clear

Thursday Night

45 °F

Clear


Sunny

Friday

81 °F

Plenty of sunshine


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

47 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Saturday

85 °F

Mostly sunny


Clear

Saturday Night

53 °F

Clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:42 AM
Sunset
7:08 PM

Based on AccuWeather data