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Tuesday Update Front Range Forecast: Summer heat and PM storms

In Brief:

We warm to summer norms with afternoon thunderstorms wandering off the foothills.

Tuesday Update:

The NWS points out that today is a difficult forecast.  We have a stable atmosphere in place that may not destabilize before a different atmospheric effect moves in to suppress thunderstorm development later today. But *if* it does warm up enough, we do have a chance for severe weather.  Figure 1 shows a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) in the foothills- this is mainly for damaging hail.  The Slight Risk in yellow (2 out of 5) includes damaging straight line winds and a chance of a tornado. Still, the chance of precipitation is only about 20%.  Most people won't even see rain, let alone strong thunderstorm weather. Keep your eyes to the western sky this afternoon but don't cancel your picnic.

Figure1u_06072022
Figure 1 update: the SPC severe weather forecast for today (Tuesday 6/7) from NOAA.

End Tuesday update.

Forecast Discussion:

We seem to be leaving the pattern where we expect most of our moisture to come from cold front passages (there still will be those, but afternoon storms are going to contribute more and more to our needed water). For Monday into Tuesday, a weak cold front is delivering moisture to thunderstorms that fire in the mountains and slide down to the east (Figure 1). With this shallow cool air in place, we hover around the lower 80s as highs and have nearly daily afternoon thunderstorm chances (Figure 2).  

Severe weather chances one day out (Tuesday) begin just 10s of miles east of I-25.  Tornado chances will exist in the Slight (yellow) and Enhanced Risk (orange) zones (Figure 3) further east. This may sneak back a bit to the west when Tuesday's data comes in.  There might be a risk of hail and high winds along I-25. Keep your eyes on your weather apps.

 

Figure1_06062022
Figure 1: the surface analysis map for Monday/Tuesday from the NWS.
Figure2_06062022
Figure 2: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
Figure3_06062022
Figure 3: the SPC severe weather forecast for Tuesday from NOAA.

The Longer-Range Forecast:

From Thursday on, we hover around 90F for a high for at least a week with daily pulses of afternoon thunderstorm chances (green boxes Figure 2). Overall, precipitation totals over the next 5 days should remain pretty light unless you get a fortunate storm overhead (Figure 4). Break out the ice tea and lemonade!

Figure4_06062022
Figure 4: the 5 day precipitation total from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

67°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.17 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
53 °F
Humidity
62%
Wind
SW 3.8 mph
Gust
8.1 mph
Wind Chill
67 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
1 AM
68°F
Cloudy
Today
2 AM
66°F
Partly cloudy
Today
3 AM
65°F
Partly cloudy
Today
4 AM
64°F
Partly cloudy
Today
5 AM
64°F
Partly cloudy
Today
6 AM
63°F
Mostly sunny
Today
7 AM
66°F
Mostly sunny
Today
8 AM
71°F
Mostly sunny
Today
9 AM
75°F
Mostly sunny
Today
10 AM
81°F
Partly sunny
Today
11 AM
85°F
Partly sunny
Today
12 PM
88°F
Partly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Sunday

93 °F

Thickening clouds


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

63 °F

An evening shower in places; otherwise, becoming clear


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Monday

93 °F

Some sunshine giving way to clouds with a thunderstorm in the area late in the afternoon; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds


Partly cloudy w/ t-storms

Monday Night

59 °F

A thunderstorm in spots in the evening; otherwise, clear to partly cloudy; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

94 °F

Intervals of clouds and sunshine


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

60 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Wednesday

84 °F

Not as warm with times of sun and clouds; an afternoon thunderstorm; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds


Mostly cloudy

Wednesday Night

58 °F

An evening thunderstorm; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Thursday

89 °F

Mostly cloudy with a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

58 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:42 AM
Sunset
8:30 PM

Based on AccuWeather data