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Thursday Update: Longmont Weather Forcast: It's a dry heat...

In Brief:

Temperatures approach 100, thunderstorms return in a week.

Thursday update:

A short wave is passing us to the northwest kicking off severe weather in Montana and the Dakotas. In northeastern Colorado, we will have a one-day cool front arrive Friday. After that, we return to the 90's then probably pick up our first 100+ temperature on Tuesday.  Keep cool!

 

Figure1u_06102021Figure 1 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherundeground.com

 

End Thursday update:

Forecast Discussion:

Summer may begin, astronomically, on June 20th, but it begins June 1st, meteorologically.  It has begun in practice as well.  We normally see 44 days where the high temperature rises to 90F or greater, and twice a year that we break into the 100s. We can start the 90+ count now (Figure 1).  This is due to a strong ridge aloft (blue line Figure 2) and a high sun angle. There is some tropical moisture drifting into the state again this weekend (Figure 3). That, with the heat will result in widely scattered, non-severe, thunderstorms in the afternoon through at least Tuesday.

Longmont will probably see a quarter-inch or less of rainfall unless a thunderstorm hits us directly, over the next five days (Figure 4).

 

Figure1_06052021Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast from weatherunderground.com for Longmont, CO.

 

Figure2_06052021Figure 2: the 500mb upper air forecast map for Sunday noon from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com

 

Figure3_06052021Figure 3: the precipitatable water anomaly (departure from normal) for Sunday PM from tropicaltidbits.com

 

Figure4_06052021Figure 4: the 10 day precipitation total from the GFS and weather5280.com

 

The Longer-Range Forecast:

Things dry out and remain hot after Tuesday (Figure 1) with a tiny chance of storms returning next weekend.  That might add another tenth of an inch or so over the next 10 days (Figure 5).  This is the time of year where weather forecasts can get as monotonous as the weather itself!

 

Figure5_06052021Figure 5: the 10 day precipitation total from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org).
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Current Weather

Mostly sunny

Mostly sunny

88°F

UV Index
11 Extreme
Pressure
29.96 Falling
Visibility
5 miles
Dewpoint
56 °F
Humidity
32%
Wind
E 8.1 mph
Gust
8.1 mph
Wind Chill
88 °F

12 Hour Forecast

Today
1 PM
89°F
Mostly cloudy w/ showers
Today
2 PM
88°F
Thunderstorms
Today
3 PM
86°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
4 PM
84°F
Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
Today
5 PM
82°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 PM
79°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
7 PM
80°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 PM
78°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
75°F
Partly cloudy
Today
10 PM
72°F
Partly cloudy
Today
11 PM
71°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
12 AM
70°F
Mostly clear

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Saturday

89 °F

Sun and clouds with a thunderstorm this afternoon


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

65 °F

Mainly clear and mild


Partly sunny

Sunday

86 °F

Partly sunny


Rain

Sunday Night

55 °F

Mostly cloudy; occasional evening rain and drizzle followed by a shower in spots late


Mostly cloudy

Monday

73 °F

Mostly cloudy


Clear

Monday Night

52 °F

Clear


Mostly sunny

Tuesday

94 °F

Mostly sunny and warmer


Mostly clear

Tuesday Night

60 °F

Mainly clear


Partly sunny

Wednesday

97 °F

Partly sunny and hot; danger of dehydration and heat stroke if outside for extended periods of time


Partly cloudy

Wednesday Night

62 °F

Patchy clouds and mild


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:31 AM
Sunset
8:33 PM

Based on AccuWeather data