In Brief:
A couple days of normal temperatures and wandering severe thunder storms will be replaced by dry and hot weather again.
Forecast Discussion:
For a few more days, mid level moisture (light green arrow) and surface moisture (dark green arrows) won't have far to travel to get to Colorado (Figure 1 in the gallery above). Overall, there is less and less moisture to our west (Figure 2). Looking at Figure 1, we still have northwest flow aloft. This adds up to Marginal and Slight risks of severe weather in the afternoons Tuesday and Wednesday. The primary risk is for hail and damaging thunderstorm winds (Figure 3). Rainfall through Wednesday morning will be confined to NE Colorado and the far SW corner of the state - and pretty light overall. This model run has one big thunderstorm hit on the Palmer Divide (Figure 4).
We repeat the same weather setup on Wednesday (Figure 5) with severe weather chances, but not much more rain (Figure 6).
The Longer Range Forecast:
Oops, I forgot to annotate the 10 day graphical forecast, but you can see pretty plainly that we just go back to 90'sF for highs and very low rain chances Thursday then not much more beyond that (Figure 7). The reason we dry out is the western ridge getting stronger and the low level flow bending to the east allowing us to dry out (Figure 8). We are back to summer for a while.
I"m still taking my end-of-summer vacation with school on the way. I'll be on a 3 day schedule through the weekend (but things are looking pretty quiet after Wednesday!!).
