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Thursday Mini-Update: Longmont weather forecast: Rain, maybe ending with slush, then warm and dry again!

The Video Forecast for this Week!

In Brief:

After a cool Sunday - a ridge brings in a long stretch of warm dry weather.  Spring anyone?

Wednesday update:

Thursday Mini Update:  I'll post a full report on Friday when the (meager) rainfall and snowfall totals come in.

The storm is arriving Thursday. The best chances for rain run from 7am to 9pm.  Many forecasters are expecting snow at the end.  I'm in the camp that the mountains will see snow, we may get a bit of slush at the end, but it won't be much along I-25.  SW Denver and the Palmer Divide will see some snow accumulation.

The GFS gives Longmont and the northern I-25 communities a coating to 1 inch (Figure 2 update).  I'm most interested in the rain - we should expect between 0.10 and 0.25 inch of rain (which would translate to 1 to 2.5 inches of snow if it were cold enough - Figure 3 update). The model at weatherunderground gives us about 0.14 inch of water.  The forecasters at weather 5280 are concerned that better snow might end up building up anyway - and have us in the Trace of snow to 3 inch band (Figure 4 update).

As always, we'll know in about 24 hours. Stay dry!

 

Figure2u_03032021Figure 2 update: the 48 hour snowfall total from the GFS and wether5280.com

 

Figure3u_03032021Figure 3 update: the 48 hour total precipitation total from the GFS and wether5280.com

 

Figure4u_03032021Figure 4 update: the hand-drawn snowfall forecast from the forecasters at weather5280.com

 

End Wednesday update:

Monday update:

Remarkable warm dry weather is still the story for this week except for a cutoff low that will pass the state to the south on Thursday.  We will see mainly rain (maybe a bit of nighttime snow? - Figure 1 update).  There IS a hint of a cool down and returning snow later NEXT week.  We'll see!

 

Figure1u_03012021Figure 1 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherundeground.com

 

End Monday Update.

Forecast Discussion:

The 10 day graphical forecast says it all - normal to above normal temperatures for the next 10 day. No notable precipitation is hovering on the horizon either (Figure 1).

 

Figure1_02272021Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast from weatherunderground.com for Longmont, CO.

 

The Longer Range Forecast:

By Tuesday, a big ridge is back in the West.  That brings the warm dry conditions (Figure 2). At the surface, high pressure is centered over Colorado as the week begins (Figure 3). The mountains will get snow, but nothing really notable reaches U.S. 25 (Figure 4).  Relax and enjoy the sun!

 

Figure3_02272021Figure 3: the forecast surface analysis for Monday morning from NCEP.

 

Figure4_02272021Figure 4: the 10 day (10:1 ratio) total snowfall forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org).
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Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

38°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.24 Steady
Visibility
10 miles
Dewpoint
22 °F
Humidity
51%
Wind
N 0 mph
Gust
6.5 mph
Wind Chill
38 °F

12 Hour Forecast

Today
2 AM
34°F
Cloudy
Today
3 AM
33°F
Rain and snow
Today
4 AM
33°F
Cloudy
Today
5 AM
32°F
Cloudy
Today
6 AM
31°F
Cloudy
Today
7 AM
31°F
Cloudy
Today
8 AM
32°F
Flurries
Today
9 AM
33°F
Showers
Today
10 AM
35°F
Cloudy
Today
11 AM
38°F
Cloudy
Today
12 PM
40°F
Cloudy
Today
1 PM
42°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Rain and snow

Monday

43 °F

Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers of rain or snow in the afternoon


Rain and snow

Monday Night

31 °F

Plenty of clouds with a rain or snow shower in spots late


Rain and snow

Tuesday

46 °F

Cloudy and chilly with a shower around; perhaps a snow shower early in the day


Rain and snow

Tuesday Night

33 °F

A couple of showers of rain or snow this evening followed by a little snow late, up to 1"


Mostly cloudy

Wednesday

47 °F

Mainly cloudy


Rain and snow

Wednesday Night

38 °F

Considerable cloudiness with a rain or snow shower in spots; not as cold late


Showers

Thursday

51 °F

Considerable cloudiness with a little rain


Snow

Thursday Night

32 °F

Intermittent snow, accumulating 1-3 inches


Snow

Friday

39 °F

Colder with a little snow at times with little or no accumulation


Snow

Friday Night

25 °F

A little snow at times in the evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy and colder


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:27 AM
Sunset
7:36 PM

Based on AccuWeather data