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Longmont Weather Forecast: Heat ends; cool and damp arrives

In Brief:

A front arriving Tuesday PM begins a period of cool, showery weather.

Tuesday update:

Say goodbye to the heat!  A cold front arrives around 3-4pm today and temperatures will begin to drop (blue line Figure 1 update). The temperature drop from Monday to Wednesday will be about 25-30F. Rain chances arrive with this front and with another reinforcing front that arrives Wednesday afternoon (Figure 1 update). The GFS gives us about 0.75 to 1 inch of water (very significant!! Figure 2 update). Note, the weatherunderground model keeps us below 1/4th of an inch (Figure 1 update).

The nearby mountains will see 2-5 inches of snow at the higher elevations (Figure 3 update).  Go find those light jackets!

Figure1u_09282021
Figure 1 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com
Figure2u_09282021
Figure 2 update: the 5 day rainfall total from the GFS and weather5280.com
Figure3u_09282021
Figure 3 update: the 5 day 10:1 ratio snowfall (snow to rain amount) from the GFS and weather5280.com

End Tuesday update.

 

Forecast Discussion:

We have a big change coming in the weather. This is a new development since the model runs in this weeks video.  Through Tuesday, a big ridge remains in the west (Figure 2, blue line) and holds strong. We will see temperatures far above normal (mid 70s right now) as it does (Figure 1). Some smoke will keep leaking into Colorado from the West (Figure 3). It looks like the first cold front will arrive in the afternoon Tuesday.

Figure1_09252021
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast from weatherunderground.com for Longmont, CO.
Figure2_09252021
Figure 2: the 500mb upper air forecast map for Monday noon from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure3_09252021
Figure 3: the HRRR smoke at all levels forecast map for Sunday afternoon from NOAA.

The Longer Range Forecast:

An approaching trough (red line Figure 4) will reconnect with the cutoff low in the desert southwest (Figure 2). Some good rains return to the mountains over the next five days (Figure 5) and even some snow! (Figure 6).  Return to the Longmont Leader for updates as this change approaches.

Figure4_09252021
Figure 4: the 500mb upper air forecast map for Wednesday noon from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure5_09252021
Figure 5: the 5 day precipitation total from the GFS and weather5280.com
Figure6_09252021
Figure 6: the forecast total snowfall through Thursday noon (10:1 ratio) from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

52°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.87 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
44 °F
Humidity
73%
Wind
ENE 1.7 mph
Gust
3.8 mph
Wind Chill
52 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
1 AM
50°F
Showers
Today
2 AM
49°F
Mostly clear
Today
3 AM
48°F
Mostly clear
Today
4 AM
47°F
Mostly clear
Today
5 AM
45°F
Mostly clear
Today
6 AM
46°F
Mostly sunny
Today
7 AM
47°F
Mostly sunny
Today
8 AM
50°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
9 AM
53°F
Cloudy
Today
10 AM
56°F
Cloudy
Today
11 AM
58°F
Cloudy
Today
12 PM
60°F
Thunderstorms

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ showers

Saturday

71 °F

Turning cloudy with a couple of brief showers beginning at midday


Partly cloudy

Saturday Night

45 °F

A shower in spots late this evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Sunday

64 °F

Variable clouds with a shower and thunderstorm, cooler; breezy in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Sunday Night

47 °F

A thunderstorm on the prowl in the evening; otherwise, increasing clouds


Intermittent clouds

Monday

65 °F

Times of clouds and sun


Cloudy

Monday Night

40 °F

Cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Tuesday

72 °F

Cloudy in the morning, then intervals of clouds and sunshine in the afternoon


Mostly clear

Tuesday Night

41 °F

Mainly clear


Mostly sunny

Wednesday

78 °F

Mostly sunny and nice


Partly cloudy

Wednesday Night

42 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:43 AM
Sunset
8:11 PM

Based on AccuWeather data