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Wednesday Update: Longmont Weather Forecast: Hot and dry now, cool and moist at week's end

Figure1u_9012021
Figure 1 update: the 48 hour precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

This Weeks Forecast Video!

In Brief:

Hot and dry through Thursday, then cooling showers return.

Wednesday update:

The GFS shows some precipitation across the state Wednesday and Thursday (Figure 1 update). Amounts are expected to be very light along I-25.

 

Figure1u_9012021
Figure 1 update: the 48 hour precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 

End Wednesday update.

Forecast Discussion:

The ridge is holding on for a few more days. We'll see near record heat through Wednesday (Figure 1).  The upper air flow will also bring California smoke directly into Colorado (Figure 2).  Hang on, much more normal weather is returning soon.

 

Figure1_08292021
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

 

Figure2_08292021
Figure 2: the smoke forecast for Tuesday morning from the HRRR and NOAA. .

 

The Longer-Range Forecast:

A trough approaches at the end of the week shoving the high off to the east (Figure 3).  A rich flow of tropical moisture returns around the western side of that high center (Figure 4). Over the next 5 (Figure 5) and 10 days (Figure 6) some rain showers will begin to dampen the state. The mountains will get the best rain over the next week. Hold on for the relief!

 

 

Figure3_08292021
Figure 3: the 500mb upper air forecast map for noon Wednesday from tropicaltidbits.

 

Figure4_08292021
Figure 4: the precipitatable water anomaly forecast map for noon Wednesday from tropicaltidbits.

 

Figure5_08292021
Figure 5: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 

Figure6_08292021
Figure 6: the 10 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

77°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.23 Rising
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
59 °F
Humidity
53%
Wind
SW 3.8 mph
Gust
7.5 mph
Wind Chill
77 °F

Hourly Forecast

Tomorrow
12 AM
73°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
72°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
70°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
68°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
4 AM
66°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
5 AM
65°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
6 AM
63°F
Mostly sunny
Tomorrow
7 AM
65°F
Mostly sunny
Tomorrow
8 AM
70°F
Mostly sunny
Tomorrow
9 AM
75°F
Mostly sunny
Tomorrow
10 AM
81°F
Partly sunny
Tomorrow
11 AM
85°F
Partly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Sunday

93 °F

Thickening clouds


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

63 °F

An evening shower in places; otherwise, becoming clear


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Monday

93 °F

Some sunshine giving way to clouds with a thunderstorm in the area late in the afternoon; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds


Partly cloudy w/ t-storms

Monday Night

59 °F

A thunderstorm in spots in the evening; otherwise, clear to partly cloudy; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

94 °F

Intervals of clouds and sunshine


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

60 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Wednesday

84 °F

Not as warm with times of sun and clouds; an afternoon thunderstorm; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds


Mostly cloudy

Wednesday Night

58 °F

An evening thunderstorm; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Thursday

89 °F

Mostly cloudy with a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

58 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:42 AM
Sunset
8:30 PM

Based on AccuWeather data