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Friday Update: Longmont Weather Forecast: Very warm again, then a chance of snow

Figure2u3_11192021
Figure 2 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

In Brief:

Mild weather continues with tiny chances of precipitation.

Friday update:

Things remain very quiet and mild (for this point in Fall).  The chilliest day in the future will be Thanksgiving day itself, when temperatures return to normal briefly (Figure 2 update). There are very small chances of showers this weekend, the night before Thanksgiving and the following weekend.  We will probably set the record for the latest measurable snow after all.  When those small chances occur, the northern mountains will pick up some nice snow.  Enjoy the pleasant weather unless there are showers on Saturday!

Figure2u3_11192021
Figure 2 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

End Friday update:

Tuesday Update:

The front is blasting down the Front Range currently and a bit of moisture and uplift will occur in the mountains. Figure 1 update shows the expected snow overnight. Look close, it is hard to see. We "may" have a coating or dusting in the morning, but probably not.  We are still in the running for a record late snow and record period of snow-less weather in Denver. It WILL be pretty chilly for the next.

Figure1u_11162021
Figure 1 update: the HRRR total snowfall forecast through 9am Wednesday from weather5280.com

End Tuesday update.

 

Forecast Discussion:

A giant ridge over the west keeps us very warm through Tuesday (Figure 1).  A strong cold front arrives Tuesday around sunset, temperatures plummet and precipitation chances rise (see the Longer Range Forecast below).

Figure1_11132021
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast from weatherunderground.com for Longmont, CO.

The Longer Range Forecast:

A pretty strong trough sweeps the nation and brings down some cold Canadian air on Wednesday (Figure 2). At present, the area of snow this storm will kick up is very limited in coverage (Figure 3).  The precipitation will be confined to the northern Colorado mountains and a few spots on the Plains (Figure 4). The snow in the mountains might be pretty impressive but with only a dusting apparent at lower elevations (Figure 5).  The latest recorded measurable snow in Denver is November 21 which occurred in 1934. Looking further out, we might just break this record if this storm does not hit the airport.

 

Figure2_11132021
Figure 2: the 500mb upper air forecast map for Wednesday morning from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure3_11132021
Figure 3: the 6 hour averaged precipitation around Wednesday morning from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure4_11132021
Figure 4: the 10 day precipitation total from the GFS and weather5280.com
Figure5_11132021
Figure 5: the 10 day (10:1 ratio) total snowfall forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

71°F

UV Index
3 Moderate
Pressure
30.1 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
49 °F
Humidity
45%
Wind
ENE 1.8 mph
Gust
5 mph
Wind Chill
71 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
11 AM
75°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
12 PM
77°F
Cloudy
Today
1 PM
78°F
Cloudy
Today
2 PM
77°F
Cloudy
Today
3 PM
75°F
Cloudy
Today
4 PM
72°F
Cloudy
Today
5 PM
69°F
Cloudy
Today
6 PM
66°F
Cloudy
Today
7 PM
63°F
Thunderstorms
Today
8 PM
62°F
Showers
Today
9 PM
59°F
Cloudy
Today
10 PM
57°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Thunderstorms

Saturday

78 °F

Mostly cloudy with a thunderstorm in spots this afternoon; thunderstorms can bring localized damaging wind gusts


Rain

Saturday Night

55 °F

Mostly cloudy; an evening shower in spots followed by occasional rain and drizzle late


Partly sunny

Sunday

76 °F

A morning shower in spots; otherwise, sun and some clouds


Clear

Sunday Night

48 °F

Clear


Partly sunny

Monday

84 °F

Sunshine and some clouds


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

51 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

76 °F

Times of clouds and sun


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Tuesday Night

50 °F

Cloudy in the evening with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, then partly cloudy late


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Wednesday

71 °F

Some sun, then turning cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm


Clear

Wednesday Night

47 °F

Clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:39 AM
Sunset
7:13 PM

Based on AccuWeather data