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Saturday Update: Longmont Weather Forecast: Warm dry weather bookends a period of cold and snow Saturday through Tuesday

Fiugre1u_01232021
Figure 1 update: snowfall forecast through 10pm Saturday from the HRRR and weather5280.com

In brief:

A couple of West Coast troughs will influence Colorado Saturday afternoon through Tuesday with colder temperatures and some snow along Interstate 25.

Saturday 4pm Update:

The front has arrived and unsettled weather is ahead of us. We have a small chance of snow tonight through Monday midday.  Figure 1 update shows just a dusting nearby Longmont. A few inches of snow are now possible Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. More later!

 

Fiugre1u_01232021Figure 1 update: snowfall forecast through 10pm Saturday from the HRRR and weather5280.com

 

End Saturday 4pm Update:

Forecast discussion:

A low is deepening on the West Coat while a front remains draped down the Rockies in Colorado. Western Slope and high mountain snows continue (great news! Figure 1 below).

 

Figure1_01212021Figure 1: The surface analysis map for Friday morning from NCEP.

The first front is arriving a bit earlier than expected yesterday, on Saturday. It might arrive as early as noon (Figure 2). This could cut highs that might have reached 50 degrees to the lower to mid-40s. That front is driven by a rather large trough moving in from the west (Figure 3). The ingredient we are missing (as has been the norm) is atmospheric moisture.

 

Figure2_01212021Figure 2: The graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

 

Figure3_01212021Figure 3: The 500mb forecast map for Saturday noon from tropicaltidbits.com

 

 

The longer-range forecast:

On and off upslope flow will bring small chances of snow/rain along I-25 and healthy snows to the mountains through the weekend. The five-day snowfall total in Longmont could amount to up to 2 inches, but most likely will remain in the coating to 1-inch area.

 

Figure4_01212021Figure 4: The five-day snowfall forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

Early next week, a stronger trough follows this same path and may pull more significant moisture into the state (Figure 5). The GFS gives us an additional inch or so (looking at the 10-day forecast in Figure 6). This is a situation that could become a better snowmaker — we'll watch that possibility here. The mountains win with even more snow either way. Enjoy the warmth in the meantime.

 

Figure5_01212021Figure 5: The 500mb forecast map for Tuesday early morning from tropicaltidbits.com

 

Figure6_01212021Figure 6: The 10-day snowfall forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org).
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Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

43°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.91 Steady
Visibility
10 miles
Dewpoint
19 °F
Humidity
37%
Wind
SSW 8.1 mph
Gust
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Wind Chill
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12 Hour Forecast

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7 Day Forecast

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Saturday

67 °F

Partly sunny


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Saturday Night

35 °F

Partly cloudy


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Sunday

68 °F

Mild with plenty of sunshine


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Sunday Night

37 °F

Partly cloudy


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70 °F

Warm with clouds yielding to sun


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Clear


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69 °F

Partly sunny and mild


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Mainly clear


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Partly sunny, winds gradually subsiding and cooler


Mostly cloudy

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30 °F

Becoming cloudy


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Based on AccuWeather data