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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – February 12 , 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

What?! I just put snowfall totals up in Sunday's forecast discussion from our last storm and ANOTHER front and storm is moving in for Monday (today).  Figure 1 is the (long ignored here) water vapor satellite image showing our next storm, circled in green, rolling towards us.

The trough driving that will be over the Great Basin by this morning (the big red line -Monday AM - Figure 2). The front will be through late Sunday night and temperatures drop into the 20'sF for a high today.  Very similar to our last storm, we'll see up slope flow and periods of freezing fog and freezing drizzle again.  Figure 3 shows the front past Longmont Monday morning and a good amount of snow on the Western Slopes. Figure 4, Monday evening, shows ice and snow snow spreading out onto the Plains of NE Colorado.

Figure 5 is the GFS's take on snowfall. Some choice spots in the West and high mountains will get a foot. Ft. Collins might see 1/2-1 inch, but Longmont is in the dusting to coating area.  Denver might see a coating to an inch of snow while Estes Park might get a couple of inches. This is also not a big storm.

Figure 1: The water vapor satellite image from the weather channel. Browns/reds are dry air. White and grey are moist. PInk/Blue are cold high clouds.

Figure 2: Forecast 500mb upper air map for Monday morning (today). Troughs are red lines, ridges are blue.

Figure 3: Forecast surface map for Monday midday from NCEP.

Figure 4: Forecast surface map for Monday night from NCEP.

Figure 5: The GFS total snowfall prediction between Sunday PM and late Monday night from weather5280.com

The longer range forecast:

Our next storm comes in with a trough pushing in Wednesday giving what "looks" like a 1-3" storm on Thursday.

Figure 6: Forecast 500mb upper air map for Wednesday morning. Troughs are red lines, ridges are blue.

Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

57°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.8 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
35 °F
Humidity
43%
Wind
SW 4.3 mph
Gust
9.1 mph
Wind Chill
57 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
8 PM
56°F
Thunderstorms
Today
9 PM
53°F
Cloudy
Today
10 PM
50°F
Cloudy
Today
11 PM
48°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
46°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
44°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
42°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
40°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
4 AM
38°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
5 AM
37°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
6 AM
35°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
7 AM
37°F
Mostly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Wednesday

68 °F

A morning shower in spots; otherwise, clouds and breaks of sun


Thunderstorms

Wednesday Night

35 °F

A thunderstorm this evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

63 °F

A blend of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

39 °F

Mostly cloudy


Partly sunny

Friday

64 °F

Some sun; breezy in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Saturday

66 °F

Partial sunshine


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

41 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

78 °F

Rather cloudy and warmer; breezy in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

43 °F

Rather cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:59 AM
Sunset
7:56 PM

Based on AccuWeather data