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Saturday Update: The Front Range Forecast: Snow Totals and warming

In Brief:

Snow totals and a warm up beings.

Saturday update:

That storm way overproduced!  I thought we'd see an inch or so. We almost saw 3 inches in Longmont. Boulder got a whopping 5-8 inches. The GFS from an earlier updated pretty much got it right.

After this, we warm up!  Later next week we may see an extended period of rain and showers.  More later!

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Figure 3 update: the CoCoRaHS snowfall total as of Saturday AM.

End Saturday update.

Friday update:

Light rain and snow showers have been falling for a day. The rainfall picks up Friday afternoon and evening and changes over to snow. We should have about 1/4th to 1/2 inch of water by the time it is done (more in the Foothills). But snowfall should only be in the 1-3 inch range at the lower elevations (with 3-6 inches in the nearby mountains).

We warm up to 60's and 70's next week.  Next Friday is our next change of moisture.

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Figure 2 update: the 4 day snowfall (10:1) forecast map from the GFS and weather5280.com

End Friday update.

Tuesday update:

We warm to the 70's one more time before a strong cold front sweeps the low lands Wednesday evening.  Some rain chances return with chilly damp weather. Our biggest rain chances arrive Friday PM into Saturday midday (Figure 1). There is a chance the rain changes to snow in the early morning hours but I'm not thinking much will build up, except on lawns, in Longmont.

We warm after that to the 80's by midweek. Hello Spring.

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Figure 1 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

End Tuesday update.

The Forecast Discussion:

A very powerful ridge is on its way to bring our first 80 degree highs since October 20, 2023. The weekend will feel great!

A series of troughs then begin to sweep the state next week cooling us down to below normal temperatures with rain and rain/snow mixes at the lower elevations (Figure 1).

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Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

The Long Range Forecast:

The trough is a pretty strong one and we should see winds pick up again (Figure 2). The mountains will see snow while the Plains will see rain (Figure 3).

From this first system, spots in the northern mountains may pick up to a foot of snow, but the low lands get skipped (Figure 4). Rain will occur north and east of Denver but should only come in at around 1/10th of an inch to a lucky 1/2 inch in places.

More later!

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Figure 2: the 500mb upper air forecast GFS model for midnight before Tuesday.
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Figure 3: the surface forecast GFS model for midnight before Tuesday.
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Figure 4: the 5 day 10:1 snowfall forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com
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Figure 5: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

62°F

UV Index
2 Low
Pressure
29.65 Falling
Visibility
6 miles
Dewpoint
59 °F
Humidity
88%
Wind
SW 1.6 mph
Gust
3.2 mph
Wind Chill
62 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
8 AM
69°F
Sunny
Today
9 AM
76°F
Mostly sunny
Today
10 AM
81°F
Mostly sunny
Today
11 AM
85°F
Partly sunny
Today
12 PM
88°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
1 PM
90°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
2 PM
92°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
3 PM
90°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
4 PM
88°F
Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
Today
5 PM
85°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 PM
84°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
7 PM
82°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Saturday

92 °F

Warmer with intervals of clouds and sunshine; a thunderstorm around this afternoon


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

57 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Sunday

93 °F

Sunny to partly cloudy and very warm


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

56 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Monday

94 °F

Partly sunny and hot; breezy in the afternoon


Clear

Monday Night

55 °F

Windy in the evening; clear


Partly sunny

Tuesday

80 °F

Partly sunny and cooler; breezy in the afternoon with a thundershower in spots


Mostly cloudy

Tuesday Night

52 °F

Mostly cloudy with a shower in the area late


Cloudy

Wednesday

75 °F

A thunderstorm around in the morning; otherwise, cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

55 °F

Partly cloudy with a stray thunderstorm late


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:30 AM
Sunset
8:32 PM

Based on AccuWeather data