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Forecast discussion:
Update Monday noon:
The cold front should push through Longmont around 3pm with temperatures dropping to freezing around 5pm. Rain chances pick up as the front moves in changing to snow shortly after that. We could see a coating to an 1/2 inch of snow by morning (locally 1 inch). This will move out around 5am Tuesday with flurries possible throughout the day and into Tuesday night.
Prior discussion:
Things are on track for a Mon/Tue, a Fri/Sat, and a then a Sun/Mon storm to be carried in on the northwest flow this week (Figure 1). In Figure 1 we see that flow from the northwest that will dominate all week. There is a ridge off the West coast and ripples (troughs in red) traveling down the stream may kick a cold front down to cool us and create a period of up slope snow (like the dusting of snow and kiss of ice we received Sunday AM).
Figure 2 shows the location of the cold front and real snow (out on the Nebraska border). The main drive is into the south central part of the nation, just glancing us. It is hard to get a good winter storm this year. At least so far.
The longer range forecast:
By later tonight (Monday PM) into Tuesday AM, we'll have a low form in the southern parts of the state and some up slope flow create snow over the Pains with snow and ice back in town here (Figure 3).
How much snow this time? Figure 4 shows it as a coating to maybe an inch for lucky folks. The 50th percentile from the WPC puts us in the range of 'maybe' seeing up to 2 inches of snow- if we are very very lucky (Figure 5).
