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9:30am Update: Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – April 16, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

9:30am Update:

The cool front should pass Longmont around 5pm today. There is a general chance of thunderstorms (non-severe) for almost all of Colorado today (Figure 1 update). Small hail and gusty winds are possible today and tonight. A few cells may approach minimal severe levels. Aside from a thunderstorm cell or two, there are fairly low chances of rain or snow over the next 48 hours. It will be cool and moist.

Figure 1 Update: The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) Day 1 convective forecast made Tuesday for Tuesday.

End 9:30am update.

Forecast Discussion:

We're still pulling into Spring and are alternating between fairly warm and somewhat chilly (Figure 1). I circled the two minor cool downs over the next 10 days in blue and the two rain periods (with overnight/AM snow?) in green. We hover around 70° F Monday and Tuesday (earlier in the day). Later Tuesday, a front pushed down that may trigger a few garden-variety thundershowers before rain chances most of the day Wednesday.

The Longer Range Forecast:

Temperatures Wednesday AM are still a bit above normal (Figure 2) then we drop to about normal Thursday midday (Figure 3). By Friday PM, we are back to about 15° F above normal (Figure 4).

Over the next 4 days, Longmont may received about 1/10th to 1/4th inch of water (Figure 5) with snow at least down to Boulder, western Denver, the Palmer Divide (Figure 6). We might see a coating of night time snow, of course. Details later, but there isn't too much excitement in store this week.

Figure 1: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 2: The forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Wednesday AM.
Figure 3: The forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Thursday AM.
Figure 4: The forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Friday PM.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, over the next almost 4 days.
Figure 6: the forecast accumulated snowfall map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, over the next almost 4 days.

Current Weather

Partly sunny

Partly sunny

57°F

UV Index
8 Very High
Pressure
29.72 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
40 °F
Humidity
53%
Wind
NNE 1.6 mph
Gust
6.4 mph
Wind Chill
57 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
2 PM
69°F
Cloudy
Today
3 PM
74°F
Cloudy
Today
4 PM
78°F
Cloudy
Today
5 PM
77°F
Cloudy
Today
6 PM
75°F
Cloudy
Today
7 PM
73°F
Cloudy
Today
8 PM
69°F
Cloudy
Today
9 PM
66°F
Cloudy
Today
10 PM
63°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
11 PM
60°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
12 AM
58°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
1 AM
57°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Sunday

78 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer; breezy this afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

47 °F

Mostly cloudy and windy


Windy

Monday

56 °F

Winds gusting past 40 mph; cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

43 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Tuesday

59 °F

A couple of showers in the morning; otherwise, windy and cool with times of clouds and sun


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

32 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

58 °F

Times of clouds and sun


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

38 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

56 °F

Breezy and cool with sun and clouds


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

37 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:54 AM
Sunset
8:00 PM

Based on AccuWeather data