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Forecast Discussion:
We saw some high-based showers move by Friday PM. I don't think Longmont even saw a sprinkle (Berthoud may have been splashed briefly). Today (Saturday) will be very much the same. [Correction, we got a bit of real rain around 9pm, after I wrote this!] You can see showers on the western slopes in the late afternoon today (Figure 1) with very small chances of precipitation in the late afternoon (Figure 2). Some thunder is possible given the cold air aloft. Overall, we are dry and getting warmer and warmer.
Because readers of this column are probably outside playing this weekend, and things are so quiet, I'll pick it up again Monday when we can set our sights on the next storm better.
The longer range forecast:
By Monday PM we are some 20F above average (Figure 3). Wonderful temperatures.
We've been seeing thata big change coming mid-week for a few days now (Figure 2). The GFS (that has often over predicted precipitation this far out) gives us about 1/4th an inch of water over the next 10 days (but 1 inch amounts are in the nearby foothills -Figure 4). The GFS DOES give us a coating to 1 inch of snow over the next 10 days - so we are probably not done with winter-like weather yet. More on Monday!
