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In Brief:
After roasting for a few days, moisture leaks back into the state and the ridge overhead weakens a bit. Thunderstorms - a few reaching severe limits - will be possible Tuesday through Friday afternoons. We return to the 80'sF with increased moisture then bounce back to the 90'sF for the weekend and seem to dry out (but we need to focus only about 2-3 days out at this time of year).
Forecast Discussion:
There is "a" way for moisture to get up the ridge axis into the state - but it is not a strong flow (Figure 1). We still have some Pacific moisture moving by as well. By Tuesday into Wednesday, the high pressure centers move off a bit and the weakness between them allows some moisture to return (Figure 2).
With lots of summer heat, solar energy, and atmospheric moisture - severe weather chances begin to creep back to the Front Range. For Tuesday afternoon, a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) just touches Longmont in the current forecast (Figure 3). For Wednesday, we are deeper in the Marginal Risk zone (Figure 4).
The Longer Range Forecast:
The best chances for rain are the afternoons Tuesday through Friday - with a peak on Wednesday (Figure 5). Rain chances over the next 5 days (Figure 6) are light and confined to areas east of the Rockies. It looks like high temperatures in the 90'sF and dry weather returns for the weekend. Beyond that - who knows?!
