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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – December 14, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

It was windy on Wednesday PM and Thursday early AM, but no precipitation made it into Longmont.  But what is this?  December 22 has 'something' happening?!?! (Figure 1)

Let's look at the span of time up to the 22nd first.  The 500mb map shows the almost ever-present ridge that will sit over the western U.S. (Figure 2).  A trough will ripple through now and then either to our north or our south - but we should sit in calm and very unusually warm conditions until the NEXT weekend.

Figure 1: a snippet of the graphical forecast for the next 10 days forecast for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Figure 2: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Friday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.

The longer range forecast:

After this long mild nine day period passes, a trough DOES approach. A chance of precipitation occurs right before Christmas with cold temperatures. Figure 3 is the GFS snowfall for the next 10 days. There are traces up in the mountains. Figure 4 is the same but the precipitation (rain and snow) is shown.  I had to use an enhancement/color depth changing trick to even see this trace of water.   The meteogram from the GFS shows the change happening around Dec 22nd, but not all model runs agree that precipitation will hit Denver.  It does give us something to watch as Christmas gets closer.

Christmas Eve and Christmas Day are in the 40'sF for highs and around 12F for lows and dry - at Accuweather.com currently.

Figure 3: The forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through the next 10 days.

Figure 4: The forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through the next 10 days.

Figure 5: 10 day meteogram from weather5280.com for DIA.

Current Weather

Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

49°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.79 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
35 °F
Humidity
58%
Wind
SSW 2.2 mph
Gust
4.6 mph
Wind Chill
49 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
1 AM
48°F
Mostly cloudy w/ showers
Today
2 AM
47°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
3 AM
46°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
4 AM
45°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
7 AM
46°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 AM
51°F
Mostly sunny
Today
9 AM
55°F
Mostly sunny
Today
10 AM
60°F
Mostly sunny
Today
11 AM
64°F
Mostly sunny
Today
12 PM
66°F
Mostly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Monday

67 °F

Turning cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

44 °F

An evening shower in spots; otherwise, partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Tuesday

73 °F

Windy in the morning; mostly sunny


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday Night

43 °F

Clearing


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Wednesday

65 °F

Periods of clouds and sun, becoming breezy with a thunderstorm in the afternoon


Thunderstorms

Wednesday Night

39 °F

A thunderstorm in the evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

59 °F

Windy in the morning; intervals of clouds and sun


Mostly clear

Thursday Night

32 °F

Mainly clear


Partly sunny

Friday

65 °F

Some sun


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:02 AM
Sunset
7:54 PM

Based on AccuWeather data