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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – December 6, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

(I'll post this early since the snow will move in tonight... Wednesday).

The storm in the west is digging down into Arizona and Mexico with some precipitation extending up into the Western slopes of Colorado and Longmont (Figure 1). This is being driven by this big trough (red line to the southwest of Colorado) headed past us (Figure 2).

Figure 3 is the HRRR from Wednesday PM to Thursday early morning. We do seem to get a coating to 1/2 inch! Figure 4 is the GFS and it has snow very close to us.

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Thursday night. From NCEP.

Figure 2: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Thursday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.

Figure 3: The forecast accumulated snow map from the HRRR and weather5280.com for Colorado for the next 15 hours through 4 am . Longmont is the pink dot, as always.

Figure 4: The forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through the next 2+ days.

The longer range forecast:

Like yesterday, we get a couple of fronts next week, but no real heat ups or cold air is on the way. And no snow. Sorry.

Current Weather

Mostly clear

Mostly clear

42°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.71 Rising
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
28 °F
Humidity
55%
Wind
W 3.2 mph
Gust
7.3 mph
Wind Chill
41 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
10 PM
42°F
Partly cloudy
Today
11 PM
41°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
40°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
1 AM
39°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
2 AM
38°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
3 AM
37°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
4 AM
36°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
5 AM
36°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
6 AM
35°F
Partly sunny
Tomorrow
7 AM
37°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
8 AM
41°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
9 AM
45°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ showers

Tuesday

60 °F

Times of clouds and sun with a couple of brief showers beginning at midday; windy


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

35 °F

A shower in spots this evening; otherwise, partly cloudy and colder; there can be frost in the normally colder spots


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

58 °F

Cool with times of clouds and sun


Mostly cloudy w/ showers

Wednesday Night

39 °F

Increasing clouds with a shower in spots late


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

56 °F

Cool with times of clouds and sun


Partly cloudy

Thursday Night

40 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Friday

63 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer


Clear

Friday Night

42 °F

Clear


Mostly sunny

Saturday

68 °F

Mostly sunny


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

43 °F

Mainly clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:52 AM
Sunset
8:02 PM

Based on AccuWeather data