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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – February 28, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

We just have a couple of days of 'warm' weather to enjoy before the CHANGE. Our stationary front on the Plains is still close by and has wandered west, responding to small passing upper air short waves, overnight the past couple of nights. It has delivered clouds, freezing fog, and bits of snow (Figure 1). It could happen again today.

Figure 2 - we enjoy 50'sF after the morning fog burns off (if it wanders west). All the action happens in the longer range forecast.

The longer range forecast:

The weatherunderground model (Figure 2) has jumped on the snowy bandwagon now with 4-6" over the weekend and maybe another inch or so on Monday. You can watch the animation of the slosh and pulses of very cold air moving down past the Front Range over the next 10 days in Figure 3. To zoom in in time and space (Figure 4) - the coldest air is in place Sunday afternoon when we are some 30 to 35 degrees F below normal Notice that the neighboring mountains are near normal due to the VERY shallow nature of this extremely cold air.

The GFS has increased the 10 day snow total to around 10 inches (Figure 5). The GEM 10 day total is around 6-8 inches. Note that both models give the higher mountains over a yard of snow. This might be the Winter we have been waiting for!

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Thursday evening from NCEP.
Figure 2 the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: Animated GIF of the forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for the U.S. for the next 10 days.
Figure 4: The forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Sunday noon.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through the next 10 days.
Figure 6: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GEM and tropicaltidbits.com for Colorado, through the next 10 days.

Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

48°F

UV Index
4 Moderate
Pressure
29.96 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
26 °F
Humidity
43%
Wind
ENE 1.8 mph
Gust
4.4 mph
Wind Chill
48 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
11 AM
47°F
Partly sunny
Today
12 PM
51°F
Partly sunny
Today
1 PM
55°F
Partly sunny
Today
2 PM
58°F
Partly sunny
Today
3 PM
61°F
Partly sunny
Today
4 PM
64°F
Partly sunny
Today
5 PM
63°F
Partly sunny
Today
6 PM
61°F
Partly sunny
Today
7 PM
58°F
Partly sunny
Today
8 PM
55°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
51°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 PM
48°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny

Thursday

64 °F

Partly sunny


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

34 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

54 °F

Cooler with times of clouds and sun; a couple of showers late in the afternoon


Showers

Friday Night

32 °F

A couple of showers in the evening; otherwise, cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

62 °F

Times of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

36 °F

Becoming cloudy


Showers

Monday

48 °F

Cloudy and chilly with occasional rain; windy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

29 °F

Windy in the evening; partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
7:22 PM

Based on AccuWeather data