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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – February 28, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

We just have a couple of days of 'warm' weather to enjoy before the CHANGE. Our stationary front on the Plains is still close by and has wandered west, responding to small passing upper air short waves, overnight the past couple of nights. It has delivered clouds, freezing fog, and bits of snow (Figure 1). It could happen again today.

Figure 2 - we enjoy 50'sF after the morning fog burns off (if it wanders west). All the action happens in the longer range forecast.

The longer range forecast:

The weatherunderground model (Figure 2) has jumped on the snowy bandwagon now with 4-6" over the weekend and maybe another inch or so on Monday. You can watch the animation of the slosh and pulses of very cold air moving down past the Front Range over the next 10 days in Figure 3. To zoom in in time and space (Figure 4) - the coldest air is in place Sunday afternoon when we are some 30 to 35 degrees F below normal Notice that the neighboring mountains are near normal due to the VERY shallow nature of this extremely cold air.

The GFS has increased the 10 day snow total to around 10 inches (Figure 5). The GEM 10 day total is around 6-8 inches. Note that both models give the higher mountains over a yard of snow. This might be the Winter we have been waiting for!

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Thursday evening from NCEP.
Figure 2 the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: Animated GIF of the forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for the U.S. for the next 10 days.
Figure 4: The forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Sunday noon.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through the next 10 days.
Figure 6: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GEM and tropicaltidbits.com for Colorado, through the next 10 days.



Comments

Sunny

Sunny

69°F

UV Index
4 Moderate
Pressure
30.22 Steady
Visibility
5 miles
Dewpoint
56 °F
Humidity
64%
Wind
N 5.8 mph
Gust
5.8 mph
Wind Chill
69 °F

Forecast


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Monday

89 °F

Partial sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

59 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Tuesday

88 °F

Sun and some clouds with a thunderstorm around in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

59 °F

Patchy clouds


Partly sunny

Wednesday

86 °F

Sunshine and some clouds with a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Wednesday Night

58 °F

Patchy clouds


Mostly cloudy

Thursday

92 °F

Mostly cloudy


Mostly clear

Thursday Night

59 °F

Mainly clear


Partly sunny

Friday

95 °F

Partly sunny and very warm


Mostly clear

Friday Night

62 °F

Mainly clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:01 AM
Sunset
8:11 PM

Based on AccuWeather data