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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – February 28, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

We just have a couple of days of 'warm' weather to enjoy before the CHANGE. Our stationary front on the Plains is still close by and has wandered west, responding to small passing upper air short waves, overnight the past couple of nights. It has delivered clouds, freezing fog, and bits of snow (Figure 1). It could happen again today.

Figure 2 - we enjoy 50'sF after the morning fog burns off (if it wanders west). All the action happens in the longer range forecast.

The longer range forecast:

The weatherunderground model (Figure 2) has jumped on the snowy bandwagon now with 4-6" over the weekend and maybe another inch or so on Monday. You can watch the animation of the slosh and pulses of very cold air moving down past the Front Range over the next 10 days in Figure 3. To zoom in in time and space (Figure 4) - the coldest air is in place Sunday afternoon when we are some 30 to 35 degrees F below normal Notice that the neighboring mountains are near normal due to the VERY shallow nature of this extremely cold air.

The GFS has increased the 10 day snow total to around 10 inches (Figure 5). The GEM 10 day total is around 6-8 inches. Note that both models give the higher mountains over a yard of snow. This might be the Winter we have been waiting for!

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Thursday evening from NCEP.
Figure 2 the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: Animated GIF of the forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for the U.S. for the next 10 days.
Figure 4: The forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Sunday noon.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through the next 10 days.
Figure 6: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GEM and tropicaltidbits.com for Colorado, through the next 10 days.



Comments

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

85°F

UV Index
1 Low
Pressure
29.82 Steady
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
31 °F
Humidity
14%
Wind
E 12.7 mph
Gust
17.3 mph
Wind Chill
85 °F

Forecast


Partly sunny w/ showers

Saturday

87 °F

Partly sunny and very warm; a shower in spots late this afternoon


Partly cloudy

Saturday Night

49 °F

Partly cloudy; air quality will be unhealthy for sensitive groups


Showers

Sunday

63 °F

Mostly cloudy and cooler; rain and drizzle in the p.m.; unhealthy air quality for sensitive groups


Mostly clear

Sunday Night

37 °F

Clear to partly cloudy; air quality will be unhealthy for sensitive groups


Sunny

Monday

63 °F

Sunny and cool; air quality will be unhealthy for sensitive groups


Hazy moonlight

Monday Night

39 °F

Hazy; air quality will be unhealthy for sensitive groups


Mostly sunny

Tuesday

80 °F

Mostly sunny, pleasant and warmer; air quality will be unhealthy for sensitive groups


Hazy moonlight

Tuesday Night

45 °F

Hazy; air quality will be unhealthy for sensitive groups


Mostly sunny

Wednesday

78 °F

Mostly sunny; nice in the afternoon; air quality will be unhealthy for sensitive groups


Clear

Wednesday Night

41 °F

Clear; air quality will be unhealthy for sensitive groups


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:53 AM
Sunset
6:50 PM

Based on AccuWeather data