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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – January 13-15, 2020

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

Hold on, I'm looking something up... tedious, dull, monotonous, repetitious, unvaried, dry... OK those were synonyms for boring. Except for a slight chill and a couple of dry cold fronts, Longmont will see very little variation in the weather for the next week or more. That just means that exciting winter weather is building up for a big hit later this season! (I hope.)

Forecast Discussion:

Snow continues in the mountains with most to all ski resorts getting a daily addition of fresh powder (Figure 1). We'll see warming down-slope flow here with some gusty windy conditions this afternoon (Monday). The upper air pattern this week is very "zonal" or flowing west to east. There is a gentle troughniess in the West with small short waves embedded in the flow. These troughs aren't deep enough or slow enough to pull in moisture east of the Rockies (Figure 2). We remain dry.

The Longer Range Forecast:

We will see about 5-8 degrees of cool down from a dry cool front Wednesday afternoon and again Friday afternoon (Figure 3). The rest of the time we'll rise to about 50F each afternoon. Those fronts do mean that the mountains will see a bit more enhanced snow fall rates (good for them!).

The first front is approaching Tuesday night (Figure 4). The upper air pattern rebounds to a shallow ridge heading into Thursday (Figure 5) - allowing us to quickly warm again to 50F (watch for down slop winds every 'warm' day). Over the next 10 days the mountains see a foot to a foot and a half in the higher mountains, but no snow occurs down on the Plains (Figure 6).

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Monday noon from NCEP.
Figure 2: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for early Monday PM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 4: The forecast surface map for Tuesday night from NCEP.
Figure 5: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for early Wednesday PM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 6: 10:1 (snow to liquid) snowfall totals through the next 10 days from the GFS and tropicaltidbitscom for Colorado made Monday morning.

Current Weather

Mostly sunny

Mostly sunny

70°F

UV Index
1 Low
Pressure
30.21 Falling
Visibility
6 miles
Dewpoint
47 °F
Humidity
45%
Wind
NW 2.8 mph
Gust
6.5 mph
Wind Chill
70 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
6 PM
66°F
Thunderstorms
Today
7 PM
64°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 PM
62°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
60°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 PM
58°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 PM
57°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
12 AM
56°F
Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
Tomorrow
1 AM
55°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
2 AM
54°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
53°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
4 AM
53°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
5 AM
52°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Tuesday

78 °F

Not as warm with times of clouds and sun; a thunderstorm or two this afternoon; thunderstorms can bring gusty winds, hail and localized flooding


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Tuesday Night

50 °F

A thunderstorm this evening; otherwise, increasing clouds


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Wednesday

73 °F

Some sun, then turning cloudy with a couple of thundershowers in the afternoon


Partly cloudy w/ t-storms

Wednesday Night

50 °F

A couple of showers and a thunderstorm in the evening; otherwise, clearing


Mostly sunny

Thursday

74 °F

Mostly sunny and pleasant


Clear

Thursday Night

45 °F

Clear


Sunny

Friday

81 °F

Plenty of sunshine


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

47 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Saturday

85 °F

Mostly sunny


Clear

Saturday Night

53 °F

Clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:42 AM
Sunset
7:08 PM

Based on AccuWeather data