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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – January 13, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

To follow up with my spot-reporting from CoCoRaHS in the update yesterday, the NWS analysis for water content accumulation with this storm is in Figure 1. There are impressive amounts topping an inch of liquid west and south of Denver and up around RMNP. That is a wonderful shot in the arm. I'm sad the western and southwestern slopes didn't get anything.

We do have another storm passing to the south of us Saturday PM into Sunday (Figure 2) which will bring some moisture in down there. The upper air pattern shows a big high pressure center over the western states (Figure 3). That system's low center is way down in the southern California/Arizona area.

Figure 1: NWS Precipitation analysis posted by weather5280.com for Friday liquid accumulation.

Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Sunday PM. From NCEP.

Figure 3: NCEP 500 mb upper air map from Saturday PM. Blue lines are ridges, red lines are troughs.

The longer range forecast:

The next storm on the horizon comes late Thursday PM into Friday. The upper air pattern shows a trough in the southern branch passing right overhead Friday AM (Figure 4). The long range forecast shows temperatures right around 50° F all week (under that ridge) with Friday cooling only to around 40° F and dropping later in that storm Friday PM (as the trough arrives). Go do your snow-dance now.

Figure 4: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Friday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.

Figure 5: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days forecast for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

58°F

UV Index
8 Very High
Pressure
30.06 Falling
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
33 °F
Humidity
39%
Wind
SE 3.2 mph
Gust
7.9 mph
Wind Chill
58 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
2 PM
60°F
Mostly sunny
Today
3 PM
63°F
Partly sunny
Today
4 PM
65°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 PM
66°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 PM
65°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
7 PM
63°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 PM
60°F
Mostly clear
Today
9 PM
57°F
Mostly clear
Today
10 PM
55°F
Mostly clear
Today
11 PM
52°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
12 AM
50°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
1 AM
48°F
Mostly clear

7 Day Forecast

Intermittent clouds

Saturday

66 °F

Not as warm with intervals of clouds and sunshine


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

39 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

77 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer; breezy in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

45 °F

Rather cloudy; breezy late


Windy

Monday

60 °F

Very windy; cloudy and cooler


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

43 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

62 °F

Times of clouds and sun; windy in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

60 °F

Times of clouds and sun


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

35 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:55 AM
Sunset
7:59 PM

Based on AccuWeather data