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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – January 2, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Our system has side down into Mexico with cold air off into the Gulf of Mexico (Figure 1 and Figure 2).  For today, the trough is still sliding very slowly eastward as a big ridge nudges in from the west (Figure 3).  That spells big warm up soon...

Figure 1: The current surface map from Tuesday PM and the Weather Channel.

Figure 2: The current surface temperatures from Tuesday PM. Remarkable cold 'circled' in red.

Figure 3: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Wednesday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.Figure 3: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Wednesday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.

The longer range forecast:

By the end of the week, the ridge will be in place (even if there is a southern-branch trough/cut-off low over TX/LA) - Figure 4.  We warm quickly as that cold air leaves and is replaced by compressional heating/down slope flow over Colorado (Figure 5).  We may top 60F for highs near Longmont Friday.  The weekend storm still looks like - not much.  A new storm is lurking 10 days out.  We have seen most of these fade out to nothing as the actual day arrives.  I'm not sharpening my snow shovel yet. The dryness continues.

Figure 4: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Friday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.

Figure 5: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days forecast for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

76°F

UV Index
1 Low
Pressure
29.52 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
42 °F
Humidity
28%
Wind
SE 4.7 mph
Gust
11.9 mph
Wind Chill
76 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
7 PM
72°F
Cloudy
Today
8 PM
68°F
Cloudy
Today
9 PM
66°F
Cloudy
Today
10 PM
62°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
11 PM
60°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
12 AM
58°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
1 AM
56°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
2 AM
55°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
54°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
4 AM
52°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
5 AM
50°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
6 AM
48°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Intermittent clouds

Sunday

77 °F

Warmer with intervals of clouds and sunshine


Windy

Sunday Night

47 °F

Winds becoming strong; cloudy most of the time


Windy

Monday

56 °F

Winds gusting past 40 mph; cloudy and cooler


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

42 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Tuesday

59 °F

A couple of showers in the morning; otherwise, windy and cool with times of clouds and sun


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

32 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

58 °F

Cool with times of clouds and sun


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

38 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

56 °F

Breezy and cool with sun and clouds


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

39 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:54 AM
Sunset
8:00 PM

Based on AccuWeather data